12

Apr

Economic issues, court decisions influencing Election scene

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 12 April 2024

Prof Shivaji Sarkar

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Many developments are taking place as the fervour of the impending elections is growing. Amid concerns of the RBI regarding inflation, escalating toll rates, and transportation costs, the nation finds itself in a politically-charged atmosphere. Moreover, certain court rulings are adding intrigue to the evolving scenario.

In addition to the impact of electoral bonds, which have added colour to the political landscape and influenced prices, three other judgments are exerting significant influence. These include the Supreme Court's hearings on the Voters Verifiable Print Audit Trail (VVPAT), commonly known as the voting slip; a judgment regarding the denial of payment to Reliance Infra for the Delhi Airport Metro EPL; and the severe criticism of Patanjali's owners, who are contemnors of court orders regarding their advertising. These developments are intensifying the dynamics of the electoral contest.

Article at a Glance

The impending elections in India are taking place amidst a politically charged atmosphere and various court rulings.

The Supreme Court's hearings on the VVPAT, a judgment regarding the denial of payment to Reliance Infra for the Delhi Airport Metro EPL, and the severe criticism of Patanjali's owners are all exerting significant influence on the electoral contest.

The ED has also mounted fresh money laundering probes into the Chhattisgarh liquor scam and linked Kerala CPM leaders to bank fraud.

Corruption is a major concern for voters, and the arrests of select opposition state leaders on corruption charges are unlikely to change this perception. The rising cost of education and the dropping of corruption charges against former Union Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel have also raised questions.

The recent Supreme Court decision concerning Reliance Infra's Delhi Airport Metro's EPL has heightened voter scepticism, as has the court's rejection of Patanjali's apology in a contempt case. Erratic power bills, arbitrary demands, and glaring lapses on the part of the executive and administration are also potential issues.

A study by Dainik Bhaskar found that prices of various items have increased significantly in Rajasthan since 2019. The RBI has expressed concerns about the imminent return of inflation and has projected growth to hover around 7% this year.

Price concerns, unnecessary infrastructure projects, and corruption are all significant issues for voters. However, religious fervour surrounding the Ram temple and Modi's assurances remain potent issues in certain regions. The opposition is amplifying core issues and drawing attention to the populace's unease with unstable living conditions. The nation stands at a critical juncture as the elections approach.

 

Not less interesting is the ED mounting fresh money laundering probe into the Chhattisgarh liquor scam and the ED linking Kerala CPM leaders to bank fraud. Could there be more arrests even after Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal and Kavita of BRS?

Will prices take a backseat to politics and court rulings, or will they remain pressing concerns alongside these factors? Voters, though reticent, are far from oblivious. Whether attending rallies of prominent leaders or not, they are keenly aware of every development that influences their lifestyle. Conversations range from questioning why individuals with questionable backgrounds align with the BJP to analysing defections from BJP to Congress factions. Both voters and party members evaluate the potential implications of each unfolding event, particularly returning officers of Chandigarh municipal polls and Himachal defections.

Corruption is not a non-issue. Arrests of select opposition state leaders on corruption charges by central investigative agencies such as CBI, ED, and income-tax department are unlikely to change the general public perception that corruption pervades all political parties. Many view the pre-election arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as a strategic move aimed at thwarting the popular politician's participation in the election campaign, rather than a genuine effort to address corruption.

It gores them to think that possibly price surges of many medicines and commodities or galloping rises in tolls have electoral bond connections. Former Vice President Venkaiah Naidu’s recent remark on corruption involving all parties has given it a new dimension for the voters to rethink the extent of the impact of corruption. The rising cost of education is troubling all either in cities or villages.

Amidst the dropping of corruption charges against former Union Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel, allegedly implicated in an Rs. 25,000-crore aircraft purchase scandal, questions arise as to why Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal faces arrest for his alleged involvement in a Rs. 100 crore state liquor policy issue. People ponder whether the Air India sell-off was conducted transparently or mired in controversy. The action against Kejriwal has spurred opposition unity, evident from the overflowing rally at Delhi’s Ramlila Ground.

The recent Supreme Court decision concerning Reliance Infra’s Delhi Airport Metro's EPL has prompted questions about corporate exploitation of public sector Delhi Metro. The Court overturned its 2021 order directing Delhi Metro to pay Reliance Infra Rs. 2782 crore, which had ballooned to Rs. 7686 crore with accrued interest. Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, along with Justices R Gavai and Surya Kant, justified this drastic action, citing a 'miscarriage of justice' resulting in an 'undeserved windfall' for Reliance Infra. This ruling, following closely after the electoral bond controversy, has heightened voter scepticism. Had Delhi Metro been forced to pay, it could have burdened commuters with significantly higher fares.

Likewise, the court's rejection of Patanjali's apology in a contempt case, stemming from misleading advertisements contravening its order, serves as a stark example of how the rule of law can rectify corrupt practices, unveil false brand images, and maintain price stability. The court's warning to be prepared for consequences, along with its criticism of the Uttarakhand government, underscores the power of legal intervention. It can impact Uttarakhand polls.

Erratic power bills and arbitrary demands in UP and many states are also potential issues. Each of these cases, people realise, are instances of political linkages affecting price rises and profiteering.

The glaring lapses on the part of the executive and administration add to the woes of the people and the breakdown of the law-and-order machinery. The judiciary is uncovering corrupt practices that impact economic and administrative systems, consequently contributing to the rising cost of living.

Dainik Bhaskar has done a study on prices in Rajasthan. It finds that compared to 2019, prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas increased by 42 per cent; food items cost 34 per cent more; medicine prices for diabetes and heart diseases rose by 54 per cent and people’s dining outside has been reduced by 40 per cent. Pulses have become costlier by 20 per cent, vegetables by 233 per cent; taxi fares by 67 per cent, edible oil 100 per cent, and FMCG rose by 60 per cent.  Salaries during the period for different classes have risen by 11 per cent to 26 per cent.

RBI Governor Shaktikant Das has expressed concerns about the imminent return of inflation in his inaugural monetary policy commentary. The Monetary Policy Committee's statement highlights food prices as a major worry, despite a record kharif harvest, citing tight demand-supply conditions in pulses and vegetables that warrant close monitoring, compounded by climate shocks. The RBI projects growth to hover around 7 per cent, potentially dipping to 6.5 per cent next year, aligning closely with the IMF-World Bank forecast of 6.5 per cent growth for India. The final picture to emerge following the release of GDP data for 2023-24 in May. The declining rupee, decreasing foreign direct investment, and imbalance in trade are further indications of prevailing uncertainties.

Price concerns persist, with numerous unnecessary infra, road airport and metro projects shocking even political workers. However, this doesn't diminish the significance of religious fervour surrounding the Ram temple and Modi's assurances, which remain potent issues in certain regions, albeit overshadowed by economic factors and caste considerations. Amethi and Raebareli, however, remain in focus, more than Varanasi.

The Opposition, INDIA parties, are amplifying core issues, drawing attention to the populace's unease with unstable living conditions. While this may have tempered their beliefs, faith remains resilient. Local dynamics, candidate profiles, specific issues, and party cohesion (or lack thereof) will likely shape outcomes in many constituencies more than any single central figure. The nation stands at a critical juncture.

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