27

May

UP :  Marginally Won seats hold key to BJP Prospects

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 27 May 2024

Shivaji Sarkar

A handful of 31 seats in Uttar Pradesh hold key to crucial to power dynamics in the 2024 elections. 

"The path to Delhi durbar”, as per an adage, “passes through UP." The state commands the highest number of 80 Lok Sabha seats. Historically, leaders like Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and Narendra Modi have ascended to the Prime Minister's office by securing victories in UP. This crucial state has become a battleground where both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA alliance are deploying their might. The contest in UP is fierce, with around two and a half dozen key seats potentially determining the future leadership. Even a slight shift in voter sentiment on these pivotal seats could significantly disrupt the political calculations for the 2024 elections.

It is the gateway to the Delhi durbar.

 

 

Article at a Glance

 

The state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) is crucial for the 2024 elections as it has historically been a gateway to the Prime Minister's office. The BJP-led NDA and Congress-led INDIA alliances are both vying for the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.

 The contest is particularly intense in 31 key seats where a slight shift in voter sentiment could significantly impact the BJP's strategy and outcomes. The BJP had won 64 out of 80 seats in UP in the 2019 elections, but 31 of those seats were won with low margins and could be vulnerable.

The SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is contesting from Kannauj, which is one of the closely contested seats. The Congress-SP alliance is determined to win these seats, and it remains to be seen if the BJP can defend them.

 

Historically, political giants like Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and Narendra Modi have risen to the Prime Minister's office by winning the highest in UP. As a result, this state has become a key battleground for both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA. This year, the contest in UP is intense, with 31 critical seats determining the nation's political future. Even minor shifts in voter sentiment on these seats could profoundly impact the BJP's strategy and outcomes in the 2024 elections.

In the 2019 elections, the margin of victory in 31 seats was one lakh votes or less. A slight shift could disrupt the entire political equation. For constituencies with 10 lakh to 35 lakh voters, a margin of just one lakh is considered insignificant. Currently, the battle in Uttar Pradesh is almost a direct contest between the NDA and the INDIA alliance. Meanwhile, BSP chief Mayawati is attempting to turn the Lok Sabha elections into a three-way race, but her efforts appear to be falling apart.

The most talked about Amethi seat was wrested by BJP’s Smriti Irani for a mere 55,120 votes in a cheek by jowl contest against Rahul Gandhi, is among the 15 critical seats.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP alliance secured 64 out of 80 seats in UP, while the SP won 5 seats, the BSP 10, and the Congress just one. The 31 of these seats, won by BJP with low margins, are the most vulnerable. Of these closely contested seats, the BJP won 22, the BSP 6, the SP 2, and Apna Dal (S) 1. If voter preferences shift in these constituencies, it could pose a significant challenge for the BJP.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, numerous seats were decided by narrow margins. Four seats had victory margins below 10,000 votes, including two with less than 5,000. Five seats were won with margins between 10,000 and 20,000 votes. Seven saw victory margins ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 votes. Fifteen seats were decided between 50,000 and one lakh votes.

The Machhlishahar Lok Sabha seat in UP had the narrowest margin, with the BJP winning by just 181 votes. The Meerut was decided for less than 5,000 votes. Additionally, the Muzaffarnagar and Shravasti seats had victory margins around 5,000 votes. The BJP won Muzaffarnagar by 6,526 votes, while the BSP clinched Shravasti by 5,320 votes.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, five seats were decided by 10,000 to 20,000 votes, with the BJP emerging victorious in all: Kannauj by 12,353 votes, Chandauli by 13,959 votes, Sultanpur by 14,526 votes, Ballia by 15,519 votes, and Badaun by 18,454 votes, highlighting the competitive nature of these constituencies and the crucial impact of even small shifts in voter preferences on the overall results.

Kannauj is significant. The SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is contesting. He is pitted against the present BJP MP, Subrata Pathak.

In 2019, three seats had victory margins of 20,000 to 30,000 votes. Saharanpur was decided by 22,417 votes; Baghpat , 23,502;  Ferozabad,  28,781; Basti, 30,354. Four seats were decided by 35,000 and 45,000 votes -Sant Kabir Nagar by 35,749 votes; Kaushambi, 38,722 and Bhadohi 43,615. Of the seven, the BJP won six, while the BSP secured one.

There were 15 seats settled for margins of 50 thousand to one lakh. Smriti Irani could clinch Amethi for a mere 55,120 in a cheek by jowl contest against Rahul Gandhi.   Similarly, the Banda seat was decided for a margin of 58,938; in Robertsganj seat, 54,336; Bijnor, 69,941; Kairana 92,160; Moradabad, 97,878; Mainpuri, 94,389; Etawah, 90,229; Faizabad,  65477; Ambedkar Nagar 95,887, Jaunpur of 80,936; Sitapur, 1,00,833; Misrikh 1,00,672. Of the 15 seats BJP won eight, BSP  4, SP 2 and Apna Dal (S) one seat.

Benefiting from the Modi wave, BJP secured 71 out of 80 seats in UP in 2014. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, despite facing the SP-BSP alliance, BJP managed to win 62 seats. In both elections, BJP's ally Apna Dal (S) won two seats each. The opposition failed to demonstrate any significant appeal in these two elections. However, in the current election, Congress and SP have joined forces. Akhilesh Yadav’s Muslim-Yadav alliance, combines with Congress’ upper caste, scheduled castes and minority appeal, called PDA formula — focusing on Backward-Dalit-Minority groups. Additionally, SP has concentrated heavily on non-Yadav OBCs, aiming to penetrate BJP's core vote bank.

This time UP could play a pivotal role in deciding the swing. The BJP won maximum seats in the state for the last two elections. In such a situation, these 31 seats can be gamechanger. The BJP has 22 of the 31 seats. Apart from anti-incumbency owing to poor economy, inflation and joblessness, could play a role.  It will be challenging for the BJP to defend its seats, especially those with narrower margins. While BJP is vigilant about its vulnerability, the Congress-SP alliance is determined to win these. It remains to be seen how successful BJP will be in retaining these crucial seats.

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