15

Oct

Congress Failed To Convert Mass Enthusiasm Into Votes in Haryana

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Syed Khalique Ahmed

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New Delhi | Tuesday | 15 October 2024

The Congress party's unexpected defeat in the Haryana assembly elections has surprised not only its leaders but also political analysts and journalists familiar with the region. Many had anticipated a Congress victory, expecting a significant majority based on the large turnouts at Congress rallies and relatively lower attendance at BJP gatherings, even those addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the outcome revealed that crowd sizes at rallies do not necessarily translate into votes, exposing a significant miscalculation by political observers. The inability of the Congress to convert the enthusiasm at its events into actual votes was a key factor in its loss.

In addition to this miscalculation, Congress faced internal issues and challenges in adapting to societal changes that have evolved over the past decade. While party organizers in Haryana may have struggled with effective election management, Congress failed to recognize or adequately respond to the growing influence of Hindutva ideologies that have become more prevalent. While often subtle, this shift significantly influenced voter behaviour, but Congress did not create a strategy to counter this narrative.

 

Article at a Glance

The Congress party's unexpected defeat in the Haryana assembly elections has been attributed to several factors, including its inability to convert rally enthusiasm into votes, internal issues, and failure to respond to the growing influence of Hindutva ideologies.
The party's internal discord, particularly over election ticket distribution, and its focus on Jat voters alienated other key voter segments, such as Dalits. The BJP, on the other hand, effectively leveraged caste dynamics and Hindutva sentiment to secure a majority of seats.
The Congress's underestimation of the BJP's strategy and the underlying political environment in Haryana also contributed to its loss. To regain political ground, the Congress needs to address its internal weaknesses and ideologically challenge the BJP's narrative of Hindutva.

After the defeat, Congress leaders attributed their loss to alleged tampering with Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) by Election Commission officials who they claimed were sympathetic to the BJP. However, this claim seems inconsistent when considering that Congress secured victories in other states like Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and made gains in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP did not secure a majority. This suggests that the issue may not lie with EVMs but rather with deeper strategic flaws within the Congress party.

A critical problem for Congress was the internal discord among its leadership in Haryana, particularly over the distribution of election tickets. While the BJP focused on dividing the Congress vote base, including encouraging smaller parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jananayak Janata Party (JJP) to attract Jat voters, Congress struggled with internal infighting. Reports suggest that the BJP supported independent candidates and dissatisfied Congress rebels to weaken the Congress's standing in key constituencies.

Haryana's society is deeply rooted in caste dynamics, and the BJP effectively leveraged this aspect by appointing Naib Singh Saini, an OBC leader, as chief minister before the elections, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi. This move was aimed at attracting OBC voters while assuming that Punjabi voters would remain loyal to the BJP. Meanwhile, Congress concentrated on Jat voters, banking on the popularity of Bhupender Singh Hooda among this community. However, this alienated other key voter segments, such as Dalits. The party's treatment of senior Dalit leader Shailja Kumari, whose preferences for candidate selection were overlooked, further distanced Dalit voters, many of whom had become more politically aware.

Despite increasing its vote share from 28% in the previous assembly elections to 39%, Congress could not secure enough seats to form a government. In contrast, the BJP’s vote share rose slightly to 39.09%, but this small increase was enough to secure a majority of seats. Analysis shows that Congress lost a significant number of seats due to internal conflicts, party rebels, and the influence of smaller parties like INLD, BSP, and AAP. Had Congress formed strategic alliances, such as the one it had with AAP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it might have gained a stronger position in the assembly.

Another misstep by the Congress was underestimating the BJP’s strategy and the underlying political environment in Haryana. The party believed that the BJP was suffering from anti-incumbency, especially after Khattar's removal from the chief minister’s position. However, the expected anti-incumbency sentiment was not strong enough to sway voters against the BJP. The BJP’s vote base remained stable, underpinned by a growing Hindutva sentiment among many voters. This shift towards communal politics has taken firm root over the past two and a half decades, and it has become a challenge for Congress and other opposition parties to counter this ideological shift.

The rise of Hindutva has profoundly shaped the political mindset in India, particularly among the Hindu majority, many of whom have come to view Muslims as a threat. The BJP's narrative, which focuses on protecting Hindu interests, has deeply influenced this perception. Unlike in the past, where communal sentiments would surge during periods of conflict, this mindset has now become a constant undercurrent in society. As a result, the BJP has managed to maintain a steady support base, even in the face of governance challenges, making it difficult for opponents to make significant inroads through mere anti-incumbency arguments.

The results in Haryana, like those in states such as Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, reveal a consistent trend of gradual yet firm growth in the BJP’s voter base. This trend reflects the party’s success in embedding its ideological appeal among voters. For Congress, reversing this trend requires a comprehensive and long-term strategy, not only at the organizational level but also in terms of its ideological positioning.

Moreover, external factors such as international events like the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon also had an impact on voter sentiments. Many political observers believe that the support of Indian Muslims for Palestinian causes led to a polarization among Hindu voters, who then aligned with the BJP, perceiving the Congress as a pro-Muslim party. This contributed to the BJP’s success in consolidating its voter base in Haryana.

The key question remains whether Congress and other opposition parties can ideologically challenge the BJP and regain political ground. This will be no easy task, given the ideological shifts and the entrenched narrative of Hindutva promoted by the BJP and its allied organizations like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Bajrang Dal, and others. To effectively challenge the BJP, the Congress needs to address both its internal weaknesses and the broader ideological battle shaping Indian politics.

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