17

Apr

2024 elections the ultimate test of political maturity

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 17 April 2024

Mohd Naushad Khan

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In the past few years, there has been a significant change in the voting behaviour of Muslims. Muslims are becoming politically mature after every election and tactical voting is the only way forward if they want to remain politically significant and relevant in 2024 and thereafter. For Muslims, the 2024 polls are the final test of political maturity. They should vote wisely or repent forever.    

 

Experts think that political parties will have some elusive political strategy and that is why Muslim voters need to keep their eyes open and not get deceived by dummy candidates aimed at dividing their votes. And, therefore, the Muslim community needs to vote wisely otherwise they will have to regret forever for not having voted tactically and sensibly.

Article at a Glance

Muslim voters in India are becoming more politically mature and are recognizing the importance of tactical voting to remain relevant and significant in elections.

 With Muslim voters capable of influencing the outcome in at least 219 parliamentary constituencies, it is crucial that they vote wisely to protect the secular and democratic values of the country. Despite having significant numbers and strength, Muslim candidates have remained politically insignificant, with the number of Muslim representatives in parliament remaining between 30 and 35 since Independence.

 

In the upcoming 2024 elections, Muslim voters must keep their eyes open and not be deceived by dummy candidates aimed at dividing their votes. The opposition parties must also recognize the importance of Muslim votes and offer a viable alternative to the ruling party. The polarization of Muslim votes can have a significant impact in many constituencies, particularly in the South where Muslims are more concentrated.

 

Muslims must be cautious against forces that seek to split their votes and work towards ending their political isolation. The opposition alliance INDIA represents a diverse society against the majoritarian politics of the BJP and offers a good option for Muslims. The Bharat Jodo Nayay yatra of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has created a ray of hope among Muslim voters, and their high voting percentage can play a pivotal role in the victory of candidates in 2024.

 However, the question of Muslim representation remains unanswered in the India Alliance, and it is crucial that this issue is addressed to ensure a more inclusive political landscape in the country.

 

 

At face value, it appears that there are several constituencies where Muslims can influence the poll outcome and also where Muslim votes are decisive and can decide the fate of candidates. In at least 74 parliamentary constituencies the percentage of Muslims is between 20 to 95 percent. Muslim voters are between 10 to 20 percent in 145 Lok Sabha seats.  All together in 219 seats Muslims can exert their influence in one way or the other.

 

In Eastern and Western Uttar Pradesh, there are 36 Lok Sabha constituencies where Muslims are dominant and capable of turning the political outcome if their votes are not divided. Muslims are approximately 18.5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and nearly 16 per cent in Bihar. In West Bengal, the percentage of Muslims is roughly 14 per cent. In Assam, Muslims are around 30 percent while in Kerala they are 25 percent. In these states which account for 196 seats, Muslims can play their part significantly to ensure that the secular and democratic notion of our country is protected and preserved.

 

But, despite these glossy figures available which look impressive and sufficient ground to boast upon, the fact remains that since Independence Muslim candidates who won parliamentary seats have remained in between 30 and 35 seats, except in the 7thLokSabha polls in 1980 the number of Muslim representatives rose to 49 which was 10 per cent in terms of Muslim representation. In 1952, after the first LokSabha polls, Muslim representatives were 11 and their representation was only 2 percent. In the 2009 polls, the number of Muslim candidates was 30 and the representation was 6 percent. The number of Muslim parliamentarians in 2019 was 27 and in 2014 there were 23 Muslim MPs.  

 

It is high time to ponder as to why the community has remained politically insignificant despite their reasonable numbers and strength. As long as these numbers and strengths remain scattered and localised, the community will be far off from the decision-making process, which has eventually hindered the pace and development in all walks of life. Muslims will have to vote wisely this time or repent forever

 

In 2022 when there was a sense that SP could pose a challenge or even win the elections, there was a massive enthusiasm among Muslim voters. Hardly have we seen any community be so polarised in favour of one political party. Has the INDIA Alliance been able to create that perception to get Muslim votes en-block? If the same enthusiasm is repeated by Muslims in 2024 polls towards any political parties their votes will become significant. Muslim votes will turn out to be meaningful if they vote tactically without making noise to avoid reverse polarization.       

  

Sanjay Kumar noted psephologist and former director of CSDS during his earlier face-to-face with Radiance, said, “I sense that in 2024 elections, with the way the 2024 elections are moving forward, we might see more enthusiasm among Muslim voters in 2024 if we compare to what we saw in 2019 or what we saw in 2014 because there is a sense and general perception that INDIA alliance is likely to pose a challenge to the BJP.”

 

Renowned social scientist Prof Amitabh Kundu who headed The Post-Sachar Evaluation Committee said, I think the Muslim community has no clear confidence that there is an alternative in getting out of this present regime. The confidence is low in INDIA groups on many fronts as many people leave INDIA groups and do not join them. Many leaders from the INDIA group have joined the BJP. I don’t think Muslim votes will get polarized for one party and the BJP will try all in its capacity to ensure that the INDIA block does not get the lion’s share of Muslim votes.

 

Prof Kundu added, “In Delhi for example, in AAP's first election the Muslim votes were polarized in favour of AAP. At that time there was a perception that if the Muslims voted for AAP in a polarized way it could defeat the BJP. But today there is no such option available on the political chessboard. And if it is not going to be polarized it is not going to be significant. If they try to get polarised then there can be reverse polarisation also. However, there is little chance of getting Hindu votes polarised. One good thing about the caste system is that it divides the Hindu voters.”  

 

On the polarization of Muslim votes, he said, “There are many constituencies where Muslim votes are very significant. If they are polarized for one party it will have an impact. If the Indian alliance can put up a joint candidate, then Muslim votes will be very significant and decisive in many constituencies. In the South, there are many constituencies where Muslims are more than 60 per cent. In Mallapuram there are 80 percent Muslims. Muslims in Southern states are indeed living in a more concentrated manner whereas in UP and Bihar, they are spread out. Polarisation of Muslim votes in South would help electorally.”                       

 

 

“As we know from the first general elections in 1952 to the 1991 general elections Muslims voted almost in bloc for the Congress. After Babri masjid they moved away to other parties but with this started the process of their marginalisation in Indian politics. The opposition alliance INDIA represents the diversity of this country’s society against the majoritarian politics of the BJP. It offers a very good option to Muslims after a long time. The opposition alliance is also very much in need of the Muslims to counter the aggressive Hindutva mobilization of BJP, said media guru and political analyst Pradeep Mathur.

 

“Muslims have to be cautious against forces which may seek to split their votes to the benefit of BJP. Muslim votes in the coming elections are as significant for the Opposition alliance as for the Muslims if they want to end their political isolation,” said Mathur.

 

On the political scenario in Bihar, Dr Maskoor Ahmad Usmani, former President, AMU said, “Muslim constitutes 17.7 per cent of Bihar’s population according to the latest caste census of 2023, but there are consolidations in different constituencies. In the last 2019 general elections, the UPA Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) including RJD, INC and Left parties got just one seat. INC was the only party that could bag the Kishanganj seat where Muslims comprise more than 70 percent of the total population.

 

“Araria and Purnea district in Bihar holds around 40 per cent of the Muslim population. Darbhanga, Madhubani, Saupaul, Siwan, Shekhar, Sitamarhi and Begusarai have Muslim population of more than 20 per cent; I hope that the backward casts, youths and women will go against the NDA in such constituencies,” he added.

 

“It was unfortunate that the UPA alliance could only win one out of forty seats in Bihar in 2019. This manifests how strongly the society was polarised during the election by the BJP coterie. The propaganda set by the BJP and their allies through media created division in the society but this time people have realised how they have been fooled by the incumbent regime in the name of Hindutva,” said Usmani.

 

“This time in 2024 the Bharat Jodo Nayay yatra of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has created a ray of hope among first-time voters, minorities, women, poor and unemployed people. So the results will be mostly in favour of India Alliance in 2024 in Bihar those seats having a Muslim population more than 20 percent. Muslim voters and their high voting percentage will play a pivotal role in the victory of candidates. Minorities will unitedly vote for India alliance,” he said.

 

On the significance of Muslim votes, Usmani said, “Alone Muslims can’t create a mandate for the INDIA alliance but it will change the scenario. Anti-incumbency, a bad report card of MPs, Rahul Gandhi Bharat Jodo Yatra, high unemployment and dissatisfaction among youth will surely benefit India Alliance and the result will be in our favour. But yes, amid all the political equations, the question of Muslim representation remains unanswered in India Alliance.

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