18

Apr

Lok Sabha polls: Will emotions triumph over ground reality again?

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 18 April 2024

Dr Satish Misra

The Seven-phase general elections to elect the 18th beginning tomorrow are undoubtedly crucial for the fate and state of democracy in the country. A close look at the nature of campaigning by leaders of different political parties in general and that of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in particular clearly shows that it is a battle between emotions and ground reality.

 

The outcome of the electoral battle on June 4 when the results for the 543 constituencies will be announced will give a definitive answer to the question of whether emotions outweigh crushing ground realities or not.

Article at a Glance

 

The seven-phase general elections in India are crucial for the country's democracy. The campaigning by political parties shows a battle between emotions and ground reality.

 Despite the BJP's perceived invincibility, there are signs of nervousness among its leaders. The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has been forced to reassure weaker sections and defend the electoral bonds scheme due to concerns over the discontinuation of reservations and corruption allegations.

 The BJP's image has been damaged by the Supreme Court's verdict declaring the electoral bonds scheme unconstitutional. Reports of anger among youth, weaker and middle classes, and farmers have emboldened the opposition INDIA bloc.

 The electoral contest has turned into NDA versus INDIA, with voters determined to avenge their sufferings due to the Modi government's policies. The BJP is doing everything to keep emotions high, but the success of their old strategy is becoming increasingly doubtful.

 

 

Though it is indeed tough to make an objective assessment of the ongoing electoral exercise because of the big media that is unabashedly favouring the ruling BJP making ordinary citizens believe that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible and is hugely popular among the electorate, scanning alternative media, regional media and scrutinising social media offer some significant clues to the true picture on the ground which indicates that despite many handicaps of the opposition INDIA block the contest is close and in no way one-sided favouring the NDA.

 

The Prime Minister is indeed working very hard travelling across the country and addressing rallies at places where voting is scheduled on April 19 and 26 in the two initial phases but his words and actions are beginning to betray a kind of nervousness that was not visible earlier.

As the country’s prime minister, Modi gets inputs about political ground realities daily from various intelligence agencies and his speeches and interviews with different media institutions reveal his insecurities on certain issues that are hurting the electoral prospects of the BJP in particular and the NDA allies in general.

 

Two issues and the Prime Minister’s reaction to them in his comments are worth mentioning here to underscore the point I am raising. In a rally at Gaya in Bihar and Hoshanbgabad in Madhya Pradesh, Modi said the Congress and its allies were resorting to lies in the name of the Constitution just to abuse me. “The NDA respects the Constitution and even Babasaheb Ambedkar can’t change it”.

 

Modi’s assertion came in the background of several statements of the BJP leaders who have said on record that the party will make fundamental changes to the Constitution which has alarmed weaker sections particularly the Dalits and OBCs that the reservations may get discontinued. Since this may seriously damage the BJP’s poll prospects, the Prime Minister was forced to reassure these sections.

 

Detailed information about the Electoral bonds scheme after the Supreme Court verdict declaring it “unconstitutional” on 14 February this year has hit the credibility and reputation of both Modi as well as the BJP. In popular perception, the BJP is being seen as corrupt as others if not more.

 

Conscious that the issue may seriously damage the poll prospects of the BJP, Modi swung into action and defended the electoral bonds scheme terming it as a measure to eradicate black money from political funding.

In an interview with ANI, the Prime Minister said the electoral bonds scheme was aimed at curbing black money in elections and said the opposition wants to run away after making allegations. Modi said that "everyone will regret it when there is an honest reflection".

 

While these two issues and several other issues have taken the wind out of the Prime Minister's sails damaging his image, reports of anger among the unemployed youth, weaker and middle classes over the unprecedented price rise of essential commodities and farmers’ fury and frustration over the Modi government’s obstinate refusal to meet their demands have alarmed the ruling establishment making the current rulers uncertain about their return to power.

 

At the same time, these reports have emboldened the INDIA block partners. INDIA leaders have become more confident in bringing them out of their misery. The electoral contest has now turned into NDA versus INDIA as the electorate at large doesn’t want at all to waste their votes on parties and candidates who are not in a position to defeat the BJP. The electoral battle has been reduced to either- or now as voters, who have suffered or are suffering because of the bad policies of the Modi government, are determined to avenge their sufferings and plight.

 

The BJP is leaving nothing to chance as it is doing everything under its command to keep the emotions high by arousing communal passions and raising non-existential issues like India’s international prestige and acknowledged leadership of the Prime Minister across the world or making India the third largest economy of the world or liquidating terrorists on their home soil but whether the old strategy give the same electoral return as in the post is becoming increasingly doubtful.

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