2

Jan

New Year : Indian politics at Cross-Roads

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 2 January 2024

Pradeep Mathur

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The New Year has arrived and we find our selves standing at a cross-roads. The year will till us which way the country will move and what will be its future. This year will certainly be a landmark year in the history of modern Inida

The Lok Sabha elections are just a few months away and it is natural that it is being discussed every morning and evening as to what will be the outcome of the elections. The political leaders, activists, journalists and common people participating in this discussion are certainly not aware of that famous statement of former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson in which he had said that a week is a very long time in politics.

Now, there are clear signs of Indian public opinion emerging from the frenzy of Hindutva politics of the last decade. It is also clear that the normal temperature of the country's politics is returning. In this situation, there is the hope that all the two political coalitions- NDA and INDIA will contest the elections on a level-playing field. The extraordinary advantage that BJP has enjoyed under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to be there.

 The Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019 were contested and Wonn by BJP in a highly emotive communal background. It does not seem possible that that background will be there in the elections of 2024 also.

It is not be difficult to say that the environment of the year 2024 elections will be more healthy from the political point of view and issues like communalism, caste hatred and personal condemnation will not be the only highlight in the election campaign. The issue of religious fanaticism will be effectively countered and the voters may not be swayed by their emotional appeal. Therefore, in this situation of uncertainty, it is difficult to assess election results and reach any conclusion about it.

Even in the face of uncertainty, there are some things that can be said with certainty regarding the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. In the last decade, during Modi's rule, India has moved on the path of becoming a Hindu nation, which Rashtriya Stambh Sevak Sangh has been envisioning and striving for many years. Therefore R. S. S will give full support not only to BJP but also to those elements outside BJP who are against BJP. But not against the concept of Hindu nationalism. Among these, Shiv Sena and Aam Aadmi Party are two such big parties which even when they oppose BJP, will still get RSS support.

Whatever the devotees of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his media friends say, the truth is that Modi's image and his influence on the public mind are much less today as compared to the elections of 2014 and 2019. It is also true that his image is continuously going down and under his leadership it will be quite difficult for the BJP to get a clear majority in the 2024 elections.

Similarly, a lot of speculations are being made on the viability of INDIA and opposition unity also. At the same time, there is also a strong debate about who will be the opposition face against Modi. Those discussing this are making the mistake that unity is a compulsion of the opposition party leaders and not a political choice. And this unity is taking place to defeat Modi in the elections because Modi has today become an existential threat to his opponents. We should also be clear that opposition leaders in INDIA have no love for Rahul Gandhi or the congress Hypothetically speaking. If BJP replaces the Modi and Shah and contests the elections under the leadership of a leader with a liberal image like Nitin Gadkari or Rajnath Singh, then the situation of these non-congress opposition parties will be very different.

The graph of the image of Prime Minister Modi is falling day by day, the increasing mass following of Congress, the efforts of RSS to keep the country on the path of Hindu Nationalism and the strong efforts of organizations of liberal ideology to create an identity and the mass movements arising from them are creating a new political environment. So far, no evidence has been found that the Modi-led leadership has the political acumen to control this environment. It is one thing to get public support in an environment of emotional upheaval by talking about Hindu nationalism and Muslim threat and it is a quite different thing to win elections by winning the hearts of the people through political skills.

Analysing the previous election results, it seems that voters are no longer giving to be emotionally surcharged as they were in the year 2014 or 2019.

Only the future will tell what actually the Voters do in the 2024 elections.

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