24

May

Dereservation Fears Mar BJP Poll Prospects in U.P.

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 24 May 2024

Prof Shivaji Sarkar

It is one of the strangest elections. Nobody speaks out. Visibly, there is no wave. Election commission warnings to defaulting speakers are in nuances.

 

More than the prices and unemployment, saving the Constitution has become the prime concern. This is an onslaught on their rights, assert the Dalits, OBCs, Scheduled tribes and other marginalised classes. An issue raised by the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi seems to reverberate. Swelling crowds at Phulpur and Lalganj in the suburbs and Allahabad city at Congress and Samajwadi Party speak a lot.

 

Article at a Glance

 

The ongoing election is marked by a lack of enthusiasm, with no clear wave in favor of any party. However, the issue of saving the Constitution has taken centre stage, with marginalised communities like Dalits, OBCs, and Scheduled Tribes feeling threatened.

The Congress and Samajwadi Party have gained momentum, with Rahul Gandhi's campaign infusing life into the opposition alliance. The BJP, on the other hand, is struggling to counter accusations of altering the Constitution and selling public sector assets. Issues like job reservation, prices, and religion dominate the campaign trail.

The election is keenly contested, with regional variations and a strong social media presence influencing the narrative. Predicting the outcome is difficult, but one thing is clear - the voters are alert and demanding change.

 

 

Another critical aspect is the campaigning gusto with the nominations by Rahul Gandhi at Rae Bareli and family friend Kishori Lal Sharma at Amethi. It is being called Rae Bareli syndrome. It has infused life into INDIA alliance workers - AAP, Samajwadi Party and Congress- almost everywhere. It has enthused the opposition parties, who now want to clinch the battle.

 

This is in sharp contrast to BJP leaders’ meetings, which are marked by empty chairs as also apologetic clarifications that they are not for changing the statute. But the ‘400 paar slogan of the BJP is being equated with a design to change the sacred Constitution of BR Ambedkar. The opposition, INDIA, seemingly has become a trailblazer, and the ruling NDA is busy clarifying its charges.

 

Rally after rally of the NDA is countering the accusations of toying with the statute and trying to alter its basic principles. Selling of public sector assets to preferred private groups comes next. The rulers are saying that major PSUs like ISRO and HAL remain intact. They are, however, quiet on Indian Oil and Railways.

 

There are emerging issues like the sudden nullifying of OBC certificates issued till 2010 by the Calcutta High Court. It is a double-edged sword that targets the Trinamool Congress government in West Bengal and the Central government alike. Prices make the highest noise, followed by religion and Agniveer part-time soldiers supposedly compromising with the country’s security.

 

The opposition is being heard with rapt attention. They have raised hopes. The ruling party guarantees are being scoffed at, but Ram temple and minority bashing still matter in a large section of the UP and neighbouring areas of the cow belt.

 

The resurgence of youth at the opposition parties reminds many of the days of post-emergency rallies and apologetic clarifications by the then prime minister Indira Gandhi. She was also calling the Janata Party, a khichri or motley crowd

 

Five kg of free ration is no longer an issue. People have taken it for granted that they would have free rations anyway, regardless of who is in power. But jobs have become a significant issue. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s assurance of one lakh rupee a year for apprenticeship per unemployed is being lapped up so as Rs 1 lakh for every woman. “This money is for the family”, Gandhi stresses.

 

The top BJP leaders’ assertion that “Abhi to yah trailer hai” may be counter-productive considering the Supreme Court stated Newsclick journalist Prabir Purakayastha’s detention was illegal and released him. Gradually, most news systems seem to be changing its delivery, a bid to share space with the surging opposition.

 

Job reservation, though scoffed at by the BJP, has got a new lease of life with the Bihar caste census and the slogan “jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari”. Yes, reservation is to stay, and Indians have to grapple with it. The opposition has painted the BJP not in a bright colour on this score. Despite the Calcutta High Court cancellation of all OBC certificates and a tough stance against TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, it will not be easy to nullify the reservation in an aspirational jobless country. It may impact the poll results in the last two phases.

 

Another peculiar aspect is the regional variations of the poll. Congress or its alliance partners are the principal opposition in UP, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Maharashtra, Punjab and has even come out with some determination in Gujarat. Most southern states have secured tie-ups with the Congress.

 

BJP is fighting a straight battle in all those states, as in Bengal, Odisha, Assam, Tripura, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and many other smaller states. The poll is being keenly contested, and results are difficult to guess, particularly with the EC revising the total extra votes polled by over 1.7 crore. The jerky expressions of BJP leaders, stressing on mangal sutra to Muslims instead of the achievements of the party, have put it on the back foot with each day partly leaders dishing out new figures on the lower side.

 

This gives jitters to the party cadre. It is another story that the cadre is mostly missing. They are not seen moving robustly in constituencies and managing the booths. It is being said that the organisation has told the cadre to stay put and not seek to vote for anyone.

 

The cadre apathy is said to reflect in its performance. More so, the voters are getting alerted by its slogan “Abhi to yah trailer hai”, spoken by top BJP leaders often, may not suit the BJP.

 

Quite a few YouTube news channels and skits like “Dadi Poti ke Khat” have viewership in lakhs. These are setting the basics for election narratives across the country in different languages. How these influence the voters would be known as boxes open on June 4.

 

BJP leaders’ shrill deliveries and the brash expressions from public platforms is not taken kindly.

 

Still, predicting the elections is not easy. The Election Commission adding 1.7 crore votes to the numbers cast after a few days may do wonders. This time, the election with regional flavours of all kinds and quiet voters may even fox the exit poll stalwarts if it is free and fair. Nobody should wonder if the post-June 1, 2024, exit polls reflect a trend that could be different from the actual one.

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