9

Jan

Challenges Surrounding Hasina’s Fourth Term, India needs to be cautious.

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 9 January 2024

Shivaji Sarkar

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In the aftermath of Sheikh Hasina's fourth-term victory, concerns loom over Bangladesh's political landscape. The election held on January 7 saw a notable opposition boycott, citing the high-handedness of the Awami League leader's regime. Reports suggest a turnout as low as 27.5 percent (40 percent in another source), indicating potential challenges to the legitimacy of the electoral process.

The tradition of a neutral election-time administration was abandoned, that had conducted four elections successfully since transition from military dictatorship, further contributing to the opposition's discontent. Sheikh Hasina, despite her pro-India stance, has faced criticism for alleged democratic norm violations, including the arrest of 8000 opposition figures, leading to a combined opposition call for a poll boycott. She even called the opposition “terrorists”’

Many of the January 7 election candidates, especially independents, who won 62 seats, and Jatiyo Party, alleged that voting was manipulated and even children voted. Awami League is in power since 2009, and the last two general elections of 2014 and 2018 also were marred with opposition boycotts and allegations of massive rigging.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) efforts in the last few years to restore the election-time administration have invited police brutality and numerous court cases to counter series of nationwide blockades in November.

The election was held amid severe commotion and apprehensions. The US red flagged the process saying it was not fair though India disliked US interference. There are apprehensions of US imposing sanctions that could  hit its exports to major destinations in Europe and US.

Post-election, Bangladeshis are fervently calling for a change in the Hasina regime, pointing to the opposition's boycott and the absence of 77.5 percent of voters. Economic concerns, marked by rising prices and banking crises, coupled with allegations of unresponsiveness, contribute to the growing dissatisfaction.

This political scenario draws parallels with the tumultuous events of 1971 when Bangladesh emerged as a new nation with Indian support.

Howsoever Bangladesh has struggled to shed the shadow of the P akistani syndrome, internal strife, coups, and communal tensions continued.  Within four years Mujibur Rehman was assassinated and the country went into many coups and military dictatorships, revival of the anti-Bangladesh Rajakars and other political forces. Still the rabid communal anti-Hindu forces rule the roost, that encompasses the larger section of the opposition. Attacking of Hindu places of worship during Durgapuja and other celebrations are common. Even the Hasina regime could not stop it.

Bangladesh was doing well with its economy and has been praised by International Monetary Fund and others. Now World Bank says infrastructure projects are among the costliest in the world. Some power purchase programmes from India are also under the scanner.

Dhaka paper Daily star says that in 2023, Bangladesh experienced the worst macroeconomic stability in recent years. The official exchange rate fell by 30 percent since November 2022, imposed import curbs as foreign exchange reserves fell to $ 20 billion.

 Rail, road networks and other developments have put it among the fastest growing economy in the subcontinent. Its exports have increased and so have job opportunities.  During the last one year, the overall performance of the economy got slowed down. High inflation and jobs once again became problems. Experts attribute current economic downfall to an oligarchy of political eleites entrenched in the Hasina regime.

India has gained as the Hasina regime allowed access to its territory for transporting goods through railways, roads and waterways. The recent cruise from Varanasi to Guwahati was a great success.

Anti-India forces in Bangladesh have aversion to such generosity. While the victory of Awami League suits India, the arrogant functioning of the Hasina regime can bring in troubles. Hasina may not bother much for the opposition, but the larger section of the people turning against it may lead to turmoil, potentially challenging the normalisation process India has actively contributed to.

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