24

Jan

Delhi Elections: The Scene Is Very Much the Same

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A person with white hair and glasses Description automatically generatedBritish Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said that a week is a long time in politics. Is it so? Not in  case of India as we can see.

Scanning old files on my laptop, I chanced to read an article I had written five years ago on the eve of the Delhi Assembly elections. Written on January 9, 2020, the article looks like a piece written on the ongoing election campaign for the February 5 polling to decide the fate of Arvind Kejriwal and others.

I cannot resist the temptation to republish the old piece. It reads :                                                     

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is bidding to win Assembly elections in Delhi next month. Resources, both monetary and manpower, are not a problem for the BJP and its hopes remain high as it had won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi just a few months ago with a convincing margin. However, the party knows that it has a strong opponent in Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal and the attempts to undercut him have not succeeded so far, the battle is, therefore, going to be tough.

One wonders why the BJP should fight the election with such intensity when Delhi is not even a full-fledged state. However, the reason is not difficult to find. Since the past 21 years when BJP became a formidable political force and captured power in the Centre for the first time, it has never been able to win elections for Delhi and rule the National capital. For a party which has won elections in far-off Assam and Tripura where it had no base the idea of not being able to win Delhi where it has strong roots is certainly a sore point. The hurt is even greater because the shrewd Kejriwal stole BJP’s main campaign plank of corruption against the Congress Government of Dr. Manmohan Singh and came to power. Not only this Kejriwal succeeded in convincing Delhi voters that he and his party are more honest and sincere in fighting corruption than Modi and his BJP. Then a humiliating defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2015 after a resounding victory in 2014 in the Lok Sabha elections has been very difficult to digest for the BJP and its power-drunk leadership. After ( losing power in Maharashtra –the only difference in the scene since 2020  )and a poor show in Jharkhand a couple of weeks before the  BJP now has a compulsion to prove that it is still a mighty force to reckon with.

 

Column at a Glance
The article reflects on the political landscape in Delhi ahead of the February 2020 Assembly elections, drawing parallels to the current electoral scenario. It highlights the intense competition between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP and Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Despite BJP's strong resources and previous success in the Lok Sabha elections, it has struggled to secure power in Delhi for over two decades, making this election crucial for the party.
Friday Fuss
By Pradeep Mathur
The article notes that Kejriwal's focus on health and education has garnered public support, while the potential revival of Congress could complicate AAP's chances. The dynamics of voter behaviour, particularly among Muslims and Dalits, are discussed, emphasizing the importance of a united opposition to challenge the BJP's dominance. Ultimately, the outcome hinges on voter sentiment and the ability of opposition parties to collaborate effectively.

 

Opinion polls and general impression indicate a comfortable victory for Kejriwal who seems certain that his work in health, education and other areas will make people vote for him. However, it may not be a cakewalk for him in the face of BJP’s determined bid to defeat him by hook or crook. BJP’s vote share may not increase over what it secured in the last assembly elections but the revival of the Congress will hurt Kejriwal as the election will become three-cornered – something which will benefit the BJP.

There are strong indications that Muslims are returning to the Congress fold and Dalits may follow suit. These two big communities have been the traditional vote bank of the Congress and their return will no doubt improve the fortunes of India’s oldest political party. But this election in Delhi will help the BJP in what would be a repeat of the Lok Sabha election scenario in U.P. last year.

There are reports that the BJP's strategy is to encourage Dalit voters to go to the Congress. At present Dalits and Muslims living in Delhi’s unauthorized and unapproved colonies are Kejriwal’s major vote bank. If they move to the Congress and the contest becomes genuinely three-cornered then the BJP will have all the chance in the world to emerge as the largest of the three parties in the contest with the support of Punjabis, Jats and Bihari settlers.

However, this may not work for two reasons- one the Muslims are known to do tactical voting and pitted as they are against the BJP they may not do something that divides anti-BJP votes. The other reason is that the Kejriwal government’s work at the grassroots has helped to improve the quality of life of Delhi’s poor and they may vote to give another five-year term to this government by rising above caste-creed considerations.

How the voter makes up his mind and finally votes on February 8 is difficult to say at this stage but one thing is certain whether in Delhi or elsewhere Modi’s BJP can be defeated only when the Opposition puts up a united front. A divided Opposition works to the BJP’s advantage.

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