18

Jun

Maharashtra: Why Rebel Leaders Will Not Succeed

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Prof Pradeep Mathur

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New Delhi, 18 June 2024

Maharashtra seems to at the centre of the political discourse today. It is rather strange that when several immediate  issues like the election of Speaker and Deputy Speaker , by-elections in several states and RSS-BJP tiff are there, Maharashtra should engage  the attention of so many political observers.

 

Before the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections it was being said that Maharashtra was very important as it sent the largest contingent of members to the Lok Sabha after U.P. and was, therefore, very crucial for BJP's return to power.   Maharashtra certainly played a very important role in denying   an absolute   majority to the BJP and humbling the pride of the Modi-Shah lobby. Now the battle lines are being drawn for the all-important Maharashtra  assembly elections a few months from now.

Article at a Glance

 

Maharashtra has become the epicenter of India's political discourse, with the upcoming state assembly elections drawing attention from across the country. The state's significance lies in its ability to influence the BJP's prospects in the elections, and the Opposition's hopes of unseating the Modi government. The Gujarat lobby, led by Modi and Shah, has successfully manipulated power in several states, including Maharashtra, by splitting strong parties like the Shiv Sena and NCP.

 

However, the rebel leaders, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, who have broken away from their parties, may not succeed in capturing the masses. Indian voters tend to be loyal to their leaders, often due to feudal and patronizing relationships. Despite corruption charges and inefficiency, leaders like Lalu Prasad and Mayawati have retained their following. The rebel leaders may have won over MLAs, but they have not taken the masses with them. Their only option may be to join the BJP or float their own parties. The outcome will be interesting to watch.

Perhaps  the most important reason for a Maharashtra-centric political discourse is different. The reason is that Maharashtra has become the Kurukshetra of the epic battle of Mahabharat and the theatre of a decisive battle between the  Gujarat lobby and the Opposition which has now gathered under the banner of I.N.D.I.A. If the political manoeuvring, typical of the Modi-Shah style, does    not succeed in Maharashtra the BJP prospects in the coming state assembly   elections will be doomed in the state and elsewhere.

 

In previous years popularly elected parties and their coalitions have been divested of power by manipulation by Modi-Shah’s BJP in several states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Goa. In Maharashtra  the  Gujarat lobby succeeded in vertically splitting the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the two strong and well-entrenched parties headed by vastly popular leaders , throwing their coalition government out of office.

It is generally believed that the Gujarat lobby may try to apply the same strategy in other states, especially Bihar and West Bengal which send big contingents of 40 and 42 members to the Lok Sabha. Naturally, the Opposition parties’ alliance seeking to unseat the fragile Modi Government at the Centre is looking to Maharashtra as the battlefield where it hopes good politics will prevail over manipulation.

 

The question is whether propped up powerful generals like Eknath Shine and Ajit Pawar, the Maharashtra ruling coalition which is backed up by the powerful Modi government can be successfully challenged by the old guards like Sharad Pawar and Udhav Thackerey who have been rendered weak by the desertion of a large number of their followers. Or will the rebel leaders –Shinde and Ajit Pawar –succeed in defeating their old masters and capturing the two parties that nurtured and gave them the political status they enjoy today?

 

While all stakes—the majority of MLAs, strong support from the Centre, a friendly Election Commission and an indulgent media  -- are in their favour, it is doubtful if the two rebel leaders Shinde and Ajit Pawar will succeed. There are strong indications that their act of splitting their parties and running down the party bosses is not getting mass approval.

 

Is it the moral aspect of their action that finds Shinde and Ajit Pawar in a political quagmire? Though this is what most of us would like to say and believe this is not a fact. The fear of judicial disqualification or being double-crossed by the BJP is also not the reason that makes them shaky.  And charges being probed by CBI and ED have certainly been washed out after joining the BJP-ruled coalition government.

 

The root cause of their problem lies in not understanding the basic psyche of an average Indian who votes to put a person in power in our democratic system. We know that an average Indian, Hindu or of any other faith is conservative, religious and God-fearing and these traits to a large extent determine his voting behaviour. But this is not all about the mental makeup of an Indian voter.

 

The fact is that in India we have imposed parliamentary democracy on a feudal society which had been under autocratic oppression for centuries and had been unfamiliar with democratic temperament.

The feudal system is oppressive but patronising. A feudal lord may exploit his subjects but he also protects them from outside aggression.  And for this reason, a feudal lord becomes a demi-god to the people living in his fiefdom. Over the years by getting elected to legislative bodies the feudal masters of India have become democratic. And those who did not come from feudal backgrounds copied them with the result that the psyche of neither the elected leaders nor the voters changed. The ruler and subjects remain the syndrome of our democratic political system. This is also the reason for what we call parivarvad ( dynastic rule)  in Indian politics.

 

Since you do not sit in judgement on the merits and demerits of the god you worship, Indian voters do not change their loyalty whatever good or bad their chosen leaders do. That is the reason because of which despite proven corruption charges, inefficiency,  inaccessibility to supporters and physical disability leaders like Lalu Prasad, Shibbu Soren, Naveen Patnaik and Mayawati have retained their following.

 

It is also for this reason that leaders like Charan Singh, Bal Thackrey, Jagjivan Ram, Karunanidhi, Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh Yadav and many others retained their mass base till the last day of their life through their physical condition did not warrant this, and it is for this reason that 82- year- old and ailing Sharad Pawar says he will re-establish his party and masses say we are with you.

 

Political leaders in our country often shift their localities and change their parties but none of these leaders has ever succeeded in challenging the established leader of the party he left and succeeding him. Party workers and followers have always remained loyal to the top leader.

 

And it is for this reason that the rebel leaders of Maharashtra will neither succeed in capturing the parties they have split nor will they be able to upstage Sharad Pawar or Udhav Thackrey. They may have walked away with a large chunk of MLAs but they could not take masses with them. Masses have remained loyal to the heads of their party and their offspring, and there are very clear and visible signs of this.

If Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar want their political clout the only course open for these two rebel leaders of Maharashtra is to either join BJP or float their separate parties. What they eventually decide to do will be interesting to watch.

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The Author Is a veteran journalist and media guru

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