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Dec

India Keen For Early Improvement In Ties with Dhaka

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Prof Shivaji Sarkar

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New Delhi | Monday | 16 December 2024

India and Bangladesh have entered a pivotal phase in their diplomatic relationship amidst shifting regional political dynamics. On December 9, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Bangladesh’s Foreign Advisor Tauhid Hossain and interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus. These meetings follow the dramatic events of August 5, when former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to New Delhi during escalating unrest in Bangladesh.

While Misri struck an optimistic tone, emphasizing a "positive, constructive, and mutually beneficial relationship," Dhaka's response was measured. Misri’s comments at Dhaka airport stressed the importance of a people-centric partnership. However, tensions lingered due to Hasina’s refuge in India and her critical statements targeting the interim government. Yunus notably rebuked Hasina’s remarks, accusing her of “fanning tensions” and implying that she acted at India’s behest.

The premier Dhaka daily Pratham Alo criticized India’s historical reliance on a single political party in Bangladesh to serve its interests, reflecting broader dissatisfaction with New Delhi’s approach. Misri’s raising of minority safety concerns in Bangladesh added further strain, with Dhaka asserting such issues as internal matters. The persecution of minorities in Bangladesh has drawn international attention, with the European Union and the UK expressing concern over human rights violations. The EU’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, Michael Miller, urged the interim government to uphold the rule of law and protect fundamental rights. This international outcry reflects a growing awareness of minority mistreatment in Bangladesh, a problem dating back to the Partition of 1947.

 

Article at a Glance
India and Bangladesh are navigating a crucial phase in their diplomatic relations, marked by recent meetings between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Bangladeshi leaders, including interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus. Following the political turmoil in Bangladesh, which saw former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seeking refuge in India, Misri emphasized a "positive and mutually beneficial" partnership. However, tensions remain, particularly regarding Hasina's critical remarks about the interim government and India's historical reliance on her party.
Despite a robust trade relationship, with bilateral trade reaching $15.9 billion in 2022-23, recent unrest has disrupted connectivity and freight operations. As India seeks to restore normalcy and assert its leadership in South Asia, it must navigate Bangladesh's internal complexities and regional dynamics carefully. The outcome of these diplomatic efforts will hinge on balancing mutual interests while respecting domestic sensitivities.

 

In a controversial move, a special tribunal in Bangladesh banned the publication of Sheikh Hasina’s speeches after she accused Yunus of genocide and failing to protect minorities. This highlights the fraught political climate as Bangladesh navigates a period of uncertainty.

Given their extensive cooperation in trade, commerce, connectivity, energy, and development, India appears focused on restoring normalcy in its ties with Bangladesh. The two nations share a robust trade relationship, with India as Bangladesh’s second-largest trade partner in Asia and Bangladesh as India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. Key Indian firms, including Tata Motors, Dabur, Asian Paints, and Adani Power, have significant exposure to Bangladesh.

India’s exports to Bangladesh grew from $7.17 billion in 2017 to $13.8 billion in 2022, with major exports including refined petroleum, cotton yarn, and raw cotton. However, a decline in agricultural exports and lower demand has tempered recent growth. Imports from Bangladesh have also increased, reaching $2 billion in 2022–23. The total bilateral trade for 2022–23 was $15.9 billion, underscoring the economic significance of their relationship.

However, recent disruptions have affected connectivity. Train services like the Maitri Express, Bandhan Express, and Mitali Express, as well as bus and shipping routes, have been suspended indefinitely since the August unrest. Freight operations have also suffered, with wagons carrying food grains stuck on both sides of the border. While these services benefit India significantly, Bangladesh has shown little interest in resuming them.

India’s broader regional strategy faces challenges as well. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which aimed to foster collaboration among subcontinental nations, has been at a stalemate since 2014. Bangladesh’s disinterest in reviving SAARC reflects its shifting priorities, while India has struggled to take a decisive leadership role in the region. These setbacks complicate efforts to rebuild trust and cooperation.

Despite the challenges, the recent talks between India and Bangladesh mark a significant step toward recalibrating their relationship. India’s outreach comes at a time when it is also engaging with the Taliban in Afghanistan, reflecting its ambition to reclaim a leadership role in South Asia. However, India must tread carefully to avoid exposing anxieties or overstepping diplomatic boundaries.

Bangladesh’s reticence and internal tensions underscore the complexity of the situation. As both nations navigate this critical juncture, the path forward will depend on balancing mutual interests with sensitivity to domestic and regional dynamics.

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