29

Nov

STATE POLLS

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Today's Edition

New Delhi, 29 November 2023

Brand Modi or a Gandhi’s ascent?

Shivaji Sarkar

The impending results of the elections to five states would decide the course of Indian politics.

It would be litmus test for the BJP and brand image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For Congress, it would decide the fate of the rising star, Rahul Gandhi and INDIA alliance.

Congress has emerged as the agenda setter for past some time. It began with Rahul Gandhi’s Kanyakumari to Kashmir yatra, tested during Karnataka elections and very effectively used with during the last few months. Their rivals are finding the jibes terse and made to respond.

 Never before state elections possibly emerged as indicator for the general Lok Sabha elections 2024. The trends in the states are becoming significant for steering the Lok Sabha voting pattern. A victory in a state could decide the directions of the national scenario as number of seats in each of these could brace a new alignment.

A common factor everywhere is the rebound of the Congress. Elections in all the states are bipolar between the Congress and the ruling combine in each state. The BJP whether losing the edge or not finds itself less than an envious position.

Mizoram has never been an important national indicator. It has changed with the organised violence in Manipur since May 3. It has been a rare occasion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi preferred not to visit a NDA-ruled state for campaigning. Despite only one BJP MLA, ruling Mizo National Front has been an NDA ally. Post Manipur clashes, MNF president and chief minister Zoramthanga, refused to share the dais with any BJP leader. His concern apart, the Congress has gained in strength. Would MNF be able to maintain its edge or would it slip off for its association?

Chhattisgarh, even before polls, BJP workers found the Congress and its chief minister Bhupesh Baghel invincible. Most leaders conceded that the state party was in tatters and Baghel difficult to match. As polls neared, the BJP flexed muscles and even brought out a magical “Mahadev app” to implicate Baghel and have him jailed for supposed financial irregularities. But a day before the polls, a BJP leader remarked, “Analysts including those having sympathies with BJP are of the view that Chhattisgarh shall go Congress way as “Mahadev issue” will have very limited impact” – a sober way of admitting the reality.

Madhya Pradesh is no more comfortable for the BJP. The rise of the Congress rocks every part of the state. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan is no more being seen as indispensable either by the central leadership, the local party or the cadre. The new face is not known. But Gwalior scion Jyotiraditya Scindia, who defected from the Congress to help BJP form the government even after a loss at the hustings in 2018, could not find himself easy to help sail his supporters. The contest is tough as Congress shows its presence with strength everywhere. Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh are making a mark. The BJP seemed to be in a local leadership crisis. The party asked a number of central leaders, including the most reluctant Kailash Vijaivargiya to contest for the assembly elections. High polling is being interpreted differently. The Congress remains hopeful. The BJP says it will retain MP.

Rajasthan for the first time in many decades exhibits trends of a possible comeback of the incumbent Congress. It’s unusual. It alters every poll. The BJP leadership, despite having jettisoned its powerful leader and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, claims that it was their turn to be in power. There are many chief ministerial candidates withing the party including former central minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, who was made to contest like Arjun Singh Meghwal for the state polls. The party finds itself facing tough leadership of Ashok Gehlot and Gurjar leader Sachin Pilot. Congress despite being in power, is not apologetic and fighting back. Gehlot’s camp is hopeful of repeating. High polling again is said to help Congress though BJP claims it to be an indicator for change.

Telangana does not see BJP anywhere at the centre stage. Despite efforts BJP presence remains limited. Chief Minister KC Rao’s BRS is the main contender. It has tacit support of the BJP and MIM. MIM leader, Asaduddin Owaisi, says his party is supporting the BRS. The main contender is the Congress. During the elections, a popular surge is seen for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress. The state goes to polls on November 30.

The December 3 results would be significant. If as claimed Modi brand survives, the BJP has little to worry, as it believes the Ram Temple inauguration at Ayodhya would add to the booster at the May 2024, Lok Sabha polls.

If it goes the Congress way, the nation may have emergence of new leadership and await many changes in political alliances, policies, programmes and economic fortunes. May be new beginning away from Gujarat dominance. Interesting days are ahead. Ends

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