10

Jan

Delhi  elections crucial test for 3 stakeholders

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Dr Satish Misra

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New Delhi | Friday | 10 January 2024

The Election Commission of India has announced that Delhi Assembly elections will be held in a single phase on February 5, with the results declared on February 8. This announcement comes amidst heightened political activity, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing public meetings in Delhi and reports criticizing the state government gaining media attention.

The elections are a crucial contest for three key players: the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), its main challenger Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress, which was once a dominant force in Delhi politics. The BJP is determined to defeat the AAP, which has overshadowed both the BJP and Congress in the capital’s elections for over a decade. Meanwhile, Congress, although struggling with limited resources, is gearing up for a tough fight, aiming to regain some lost ground.

This election is especially important after the BJP's underwhelming performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, despite surprising victories in Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls. It is a test of leadership for both Prime Minister Modi and former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. For the AAP, this is its most challenging election yet, while the BJP hopes to break its long streak of being out of power in Delhi since 1998. Congress, with little to lose, is fighting to stay relevant.

 

Article at a Glance
The Election Commission of India has scheduled the Delhi Assembly elections for February 5, with results to be announced on February 8. This election is pivotal for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress party.
The AAP, which has dominated Delhi politics since 2013, faces challenges from corruption allegations and anti-incumbency sentiments. The BJP aims to break its long-standing absence from power in Delhi, leveraging its support base and focusing on AAP's governance issues.
Meanwhile, Congress, once a major player, seeks to regain relevance after significant electoral declines. The outcome will not only impact the political landscape in Delhi but also influence the dynamics within the opposition INDIA bloc, of which AAP is a part. Each party is gearing up for a fierce contest, with the stakes high for their future in Delhi politics.

 

The AAP emerged from an anti-corruption movement in 2013, stunning everyone by winning 28 out of 70 seats in its first election with a 29.49% vote share. In 2015, the party achieved a landslide victory, winning 67 seats with a 54.34% vote share, leaving just three seats for the BJP and none for Congress. The AAP almost repeated this success in 2020, winning 62 seats with a 53.57% vote share.

However, the party now faces serious challenges, including allegations of corruption. Kejriwal himself spent months in jail over accusations linked to the Delhi excise policy scam, although he was granted bail. Other key leaders, including former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia and ministers Satyendar Jain and Sanjay Singh, have also faced legal troubles.

Despite these issues, the AAP remains popular due to its welfare-focused governance, which includes initiatives like mohalla clinics, improved government schools, and subsidies for power and water. Yet, the party is grappling with anti-incumbency sentiments and a tarnished image, making this election a tough battle.

The BJP, supported by upper-middle-class voters, the Punjabi community, and traders, has managed to retain its vote base over the years. Even in elections where the AAP swept the polls, the BJP’s vote share never dipped below 32%. In 2020, the BJP secured 38.51% of votes and eight seats, showing that it has a strong support base despite being out of power in Delhi for over two decades.

This time, the BJP is focusing its campaign on corruption charges against the AAP and targeting Kejriwal for allegedly spending lavishly on renovating his residence. Prime Minister Modi has directly challenged the AAP’s governance model, highlighting the central government’s welfare programs and efficiency.

The BJP also draws confidence from its consistent performance in Delhi's Lok Sabha elections, where it has won all seven seats since 2014. The party hopes to translate this success into Assembly victories and end its long absence from power in the state.

The Congress, once a dominant force in Delhi, has seen a dramatic fall in its fortunes. Under Sheila Dikshit’s leadership, the party governed Delhi for 15 years, winning 52 out of 70 seats in the 1998 elections with a 47.76% vote share. However, its decline began in 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats.

In 2015, Congress hit rock bottom, failing to win a single seat and securing less than 10% of the votes. The situation worsened in 2020 when its vote share dropped to 4.26%, with most candidates losing their deposits. The party’s weakened organization and lack of strong leadership have made it a minor player in Delhi politics.

Despite its struggles, Congress is contesting this election with renewed vigor, aiming to regain some of its lost credibility. The party sees this as an opportunity to rebuild itself, even if its chances of winning are slim.

The election also holds significance for the INDIA bloc, an alliance of opposition parties that includes the AAP. As the only party in the bloc that governs more than one state, the AAP’s performance in Delhi will impact its standing within the alliance. A victory for the AAP would strengthen its position in the bloc, while a loss could give Congress an upper hand.

For the AAP, winning a third consecutive term would solidify its reputation as a strong political force and reaffirm the popularity of its welfare model. For the BJP, a victory would end its 25-year wait to govern Delhi and deal a significant blow to the opposition. For Congress, even a modest improvement in its performance would be a step towards revival.

As the election date approaches, Delhi is set to witness an intense battle among these three parties, each vying for the trust and votes of its citizens.

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