16

Dec

How Should India Deal with Trump’s New America

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Trade and tariff negotiations apart, the United States that the world is dealing with today is not the America of the post–Second World War era. It is no longer instinctively liberal, accommodative, or magnanimous in its global outlook. This shift is not confined to Washington alone. Across much of Western Europe as well, a similar inward-looking mood is visible. It is difficult to believe that in the coming years, people like Barack Obama and Kamla Harris will be able to occupy such high offices in the U.S.

The short-lived tenure of Hindu Prime Minister Rishi Sonak in England needs to be seen in this context.

Together, these changes mark a broader transformation within the Western world.

At the heart of this transformation lies a deep sense of insecurity. Large sections of white, Christian-majority societies in the West increasingly perceive themselves as being challenged—economically, demographically, and culturally—by people and nations they once dominated. The anxiety is not entirely new, but it has now acquired political expression. Just as sections of India’s Hindu majority periodically express unease about Muslims despite centuries of coexistence, segments of the Western population appear unsettled by the rise of non-white powers such as China, India, and several African nations.

Donald Trump’s political appeal must be understood against this backdrop. He represents a constituency that fears losing long-held privileges in a changing democratic and global order. His rhetoric blends arrogance with insecurity—confidence in American superiority combined with fear of declining hegemony. This contradiction has shaped his attitude towards allies and partners, including India. His dismissive remarks on the Indian economy, the informal treatment of India’s Prime Minister after returning to office, and the imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian goods are not isolated incidents but part of a broader worldview.

The article argues that the United States has undergone a fundamental transformation from its post–World War II liberal and accommodating global role to a more inward-looking, transactional power, a shift mirrored across much of the Western world. This change is driven by insecurity within white, Christian-majority societies that feel economically, culturally, and demographically challenged by rising non-white powers such as China and India.
Obvious and Offbeat
By Pradeep Mathur
Donald Trump’s politics, trade tariffs, immigration restrictions, and dismissive approach toward allies, including India, reflect this anxiety. The growing use of non-dollar trade by India, Russia, and potentially China signals a gradual erosion of U.S. hegemony. A new U.S. security doctrine prioritises geo-economics over military intervention, avoids naming direct adversaries, and focuses on domestic revival. For India, the article stresses the need for strategic autonomy, realism, and policy flexibility in dealing with a less ideological, interest-driven America.

Now more than 90% of trade between Russia and India is in non-dollar terms. We are perhaps working for such an arrangement with China as well.

Once the dollar is sidelined, U.S. hegemony will be practically over, as China is nearly on a par with the U.S. in advanced technology and military strength. Historically, America welcomed Indian professionals so long as they strengthened the system without unsettling it. Once their success began to challenge established hierarchies, discomfort followed. This explains the increasingly sharp debates around immigration, work visas, and outsourcing—issues that carry strong domestic political overtones in the U.S.

Many Indian analysts, however, struggle to read these signals accurately. Inputs from official diplomatic channels are useful, but they should not be mistaken for objective interpretations of American politics. India must analyse Washington independently, recognising that U.S. policy is driven primarily by domestic political compulsions rather than sentimental alliances.

Within the United States, people of Indian origin today wield significant economic and professional influence. In many sectors—technology, medicine, finance, academia, and even administration—they are disproportionately represented. This success, however, has also created political friction. A majority of Indian Americans lean towards the Democratic Party, contributing to a subtle cooling of personal chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump. The current “visa drama” must be seen through this political lens rather than as a purely administrative issue. Despite perceptions to the contrary, Indian diplomats do not command decisive influence in Washington, even among the Indian diaspora.

Against this social and political churn, the recently released U.S. security document of 5 December marks a significant recalibration of American foreign policy. It signals an attempt to redefine the “American Dream” by shifting focus from traditional geopolitics to geo-economics. Unlike the post-war decades of gunboat diplomacy, regime change, and prolonged military entanglements, the new strategy prioritises ending conflicts and redirecting national resources towards domestic manufacturing, trade, and economic revival.

A notable departure from President Joe Biden’s 2022 security doctrine is the absence of any country being explicitly named as a direct adversary. Biden had clearly identified China as the principal strategic threat. The new document avoids such blunt categorisation and instead echoes the spirit of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, reaffirming U.S. dominance within its own hemisphere. This suggests a more restrained global posture—selective engagement rather than universal intervention.

The document also reflects a reassessment of past American assumptions. Decades of corporate investment in China, driven by cheap labour and profit maximisation, were based on the belief that economic engagement would lead to political liberalisation. That assumption proved flawed. Instead, China used global capital to build infrastructure, technological capacity, and military strength, emerging as a formidable competitor to U.S. supremacy.

In this evolving framework, Russia occupies a complex position. Washington appears to believe that Moscow can serve as a partial counterweight to Beijing in Eurasia—a striking reversal of Cold War strategy, when the U.S. aligned with China to weaken the Soviet Union. This explains America’s muted response to President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to India. Contrary to alarmist interpretations, closer India–Russia ties are not viewed in Washington as an immediate threat. Some American strategists even argue that strong India–Russia relations could reduce Moscow’s overdependence on China.

Trade diplomacy now forms the cornerstone of U.S. global engagement. Manufacturing shifts towards Vietnam, Malaysia, and India—trends that began during Trump’s first term—are expected to continue. While the U.S. maintains strong deterrence against China over Taiwan, it simultaneously seeks balanced trade relationships rather than open-ended confrontation.

For India, navigating this transformed American outlook is a delicate task. It must sustain its strategic partnership with the U.S., preserve its historically close ties with Russia, and maintain strategic autonomy in line with its non-aligned tradition. The challenge lies in recognising that America today is driven less by ideology and more by economic self-interest and domestic politics.

Dealing with this new America requires realism rather than nostalgia. The age of moral leadership and generous alliances is giving way to transactional diplomacy. India’s success will depend not on emotional expectations but on hard-headed assessment, policy flexibility, and confidence in its own rising stature on the global stage. (Veteran journalist and media Guru, Prof Pradeep Mathur, is Editor-in-Chief of Mediamap News Network and Chairman of MBKM Foundation, a not-for-profit organisation for voluntary social work)

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