13

Feb

Only Losers and No Winners in U.S.–India Trade Deal

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As claimed by both sides, the recently announced U.S.–India trade deal is being presented as a diplomatic success. Yet, on closer scrutiny, it appears less a win–win arrangement and more a lose–lose outcome—framed in official language as “adjustment” and “accommodation.”

President Donald Trump has been forced to retreat from the posture of a superpower leader who believes America’s economic might is beyond challenge and that India can be pressured indefinitely through unreasonable tariffs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile, risks a loss of political stature by compromising on sensitive issues such as agriculture and oil—sectors that remain vital to India’s economic stability.

Trump’s climbdown reflects an emerging global reality: the United States is no longer operating in a unipolar world where “might makes right.” Modi’s concessions, on the other hand, stem partly from intense pressure exerted by domestic business lobbies, many of which remain reluctant to invest in exploring alternative export markets abroad. Instead, they projected the perceived loss of access to the U.S. market as a national disaster.

The media amplified this narrative, often ignoring a crucial fact: India not only has potential new markets if approached strategically, but also possesses a vast domestic market capable of absorbing surplus production.

A Shifting Global Economic Order

Whether Washington wishes to acknowledge it or not, one undeniable trend is gathering momentum: the process of de-dollarisation. The rise of BRICS as an economic and political reality is transforming international trade patterns.

The article argues that the newly announced U.S.–India trade deal is being portrayed as a diplomatic success, but in reality represents a lose–lose outcome for both sides. President Trump is seen as retreating from his aggressive tariff posture, reflecting the decline of U.S. dominance in a shifting multipolar world. Prime Minister Modi, meanwhile, risks political damage by making concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture and oil under pressure from domestic business lobbies.
Friday Fuss
By Pradeep Mathur
The piece places the deal within a broader global transformation marked by de-dollarisation and the growing influence of BRICS. With BRICS expanding and developing alternative trade and currency mechanisms, the deal is presented as a symptom of the gradual transition from a U.S.-centric economic order to a multipolar global system.

The BRICS-led global economy is no longer merely an idea. It is increasingly shaping financial and trade mechanisms outside the traditional Western-dominated system. Importantly, it is not only BRICS members who are exploring alternatives to U.S. economic dominance. Even countries such as Canada and several in the European Union are gradually diversifying away from exclusive dependence on the United States.

The broader reality is the emergence of a multipolar world—financially as well as militarily—a shift the U.S. has also confronted in its tensions with Iran.

BRICS nations collectively control around 44% of global grain production and account for the largest share of the world’s population. This presents major business opportunities, especially for commodity-rich countries seeking stronger trade links with this expanding bloc.

Currency Alternatives and New Trade Mechanisms

BRICS currency alternatives are reshaping the global financial landscape. The multipolar financial system being developed includes local settlement mechanisms that enable trade without relying entirely on the U.S. dollar.

Discussions have even emerged around new units of account backed by gold and member currencies—signalling a significant shift in the way global finance could function in the coming decades.

President Trump has warned of imposing 10% tariffs on countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS.” Yet such threats may paradoxically accelerate diversification rather than prevent it.

In practice, the BRICS global economy represents not only a challenge to Western dominance but also an opportunity for middle powers such as Canada to enhance their standing through partnerships across multiple blocs.

BRICS Expansion and Commodity Influence

The BRICS coalition has expanded considerably. It now includes ten full members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, along with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia. Ten partner countries have also joined, strengthening the group’s influence over critical resources and agricultural outputs.

This expansion is already having visible implications for global markets.

One major initiative is the proposed BRICS grain exchange, endorsed during the Kazan summit in 2024. Its purpose is to protect national markets from negative external intervention, speculation, and artificial shortages, while creating independent pricing benchmarks for grain.

Canada’s Unique Position

Within this evolving scenario, Canada occupies a unique position. Trump may view Canada, at least subconsciously, as an extension of U.S. economic influence. Yet Canada could potentially benefit from engaging more actively with BRICS-driven commodity platforms.

Canada ranks as the world’s third-largest wheat exporter, accounting for roughly 15% of global trade. Participation in new BRICS commodity mechanisms could provide Canadian agricultural products direct access to markets representing nearly 44% of global grain consumption.

As one observer noted, “By deepening ties with India, Canada would be sending a clear message to the world that it is ready to seize opportunities for its people.”

The BRICS grain exchange aims to facilitate transactions in local currencies, reducing dollar dependency without eliminating it entirely. Such flexibility reflects the new multipolar financial order that is steadily taking shape.

It is even projected that trading of agricultural and related products on a BRICS commodity exchange could exceed $1 trillion in the future.

Looking Ahead

The influence of BRICS in commodity markets is likely to keep expanding. As membership grows and integration deepens, opportunities will multiply for countries willing to engage with this shift.

Canada’s ability to position itself within this changing landscape—while preserving traditional partnerships—could shape its economic trajectory for decades.

In this context, the U.S.–India trade deal appears less like a triumph and more like a symptom of a larger transformation: the gradual transition from a U.S.-centric order to a genuinely multipolar world economy. (Veteran journalist and media Guru, Prof Pradeep Mathur is Editor-in-chief of Media Map News Network and Chairman of MBKM Foundation, a not-for-profit organisation for voluntary social work.)

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