1

Apr

BJP’s  400-Seat Claim Unrealistic And fake

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 1 April 2024

Dr Satish Misra

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party has claimed winning rather than crossing the tally of 400 Lok Sabha seats along with its allies in the 7-phase general elections scheduled to commence from April 19.

 

While the Prime Minister’s army of followers, sympathisers and sycophants are convinced with the tall appearing if not impossible target and would say “Modi hai to mumkin hai”, rationalists serious political analysts and seasoned pollsters rule out such a possibility saying that it is yet another ‘Jumla’ which is being used by the ruling party’s massive propaganda machinery as a psychological weapon to demoralize political rivals and opponents.

**********Nutshell**********

“The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claims that it will win more than 400 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections. However, political analysts and pollsters believe this to be an unrealistic target and a mere propaganda tool to demoralize opponents. The BJP's troubles in Gujarat, where two candidates declined to contest the election, and the controversy surrounding Union Minister Parshottam Rupala, threaten to cause significant problems for the party.

 The challenge from the INDIA bloc , particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka, is also a cause for concern for BJP. The BJP's performance in the 2019 general elections may be difficult to repeat, given the protests and dissidence from state leaders, as well as the huge sympathy factor in favour of Opposition leaders. Overall, it seems unlikely that the BJP will be able to reach their declared goal of 400 seats.”

 

Even a cursory look at the political scenario in the country and the state of the ruling National Democratic Alliance in general and the BJP, in particular, does not in any way suggest that the claim of 400 plus Lok Sabha seats is convincing.

 

The BJP’s troubles in Gujarat, where the saffron party has been winging all 26 seats in 2014 and in the 2019 general elections, though overlooked rather underreported by the national media are serious and cannot be brushed aside.

 

Two BJP candidates from Vadodara and Sabarkantha Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, which has been a fiefdom of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his close comrade in arms Union Home Minister Amit Shah ad where the duo’s writ runs unchallenged, declined to contest the election citing “personal reasons”.

 

Ranjanben Bhatt from Vadodara, declined to contest despite being offered the party ticket a third time. Her candidature had faced stiff resistance from some sections within the party including that from former national vice president of the party’s Mahila Morcha who was suspended from the party after her opposition became public. She announced her decision through social media though she also iterated her faith in the party and promised to work for the party’s candidate. On the same day, Bhikaji Thakor, who was asked to fight his first big political battle from Sabarkantha, backed out after launching his campaign citing personal reasons.

 

Even his replacement Shohna Baraiya is facing protests from local cadres. There have been protests against party candidates in other constituencies like in Porbandar where Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya is the candidate.

 

Yet another Union Minister Parshottam Rupala, former state party president and a close confidante of the Modi-Shah duo, is caught in a controversy that is threatening to cause big trouble to the BJP. A complaint of defamation against Rupala, the official party candidate from Rajkot, has been lodged by Congress leader Adityasinh Govil who claims “royal” lineage. The complaint was against the remarks made by the Union Minister at an event on March 22 about “kings bowing to the British” and “breaking bread with them and giving their daughters in marriage,” videos of which went viral.

 

His comments have spiralled into a war between Patels and Kshatriya communities. Although Rupala tendered an apology the next day the Kshatriya community has refused to relent and has demanded that he withdraws from the contest.

 

The BJP is facing similar protests and anger over the selection of candidates in many other states including in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

 

Notwithstanding the internal troubles faced by the BJP in several states, the challenge from the INDIA block is serious this time. If we were to look at Maharashtra and Karnataka alone which elects 76 MPs. In 2019, the BJP had won 48 while its alliance partner Shiv Sena had won 18 seats. Now that the Shiv Sena is divided and the BJP is contesting the Lok Sabha polls with NCP (Ajit Pawar) and the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde against Uddhav Thackrey led Shiv Sena, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress.

 

From all accounts, it is going to be an uphill task for the BJP to repeat its performance in the 2019 general elections, particularly in the background of the huge sympathy factor in favour of both Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray.

 

In Karnataka, the BJP had won 25 seats in 2019. To repeat the performance this time in the face of protests and dissidence from state leaders appears to be a big no, particularly in the background of the Congress holding the reins of power in the state.

 

Even if we were to presume that the BJP would win all seats in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh though it is highly impossible, it will not be enough to reach the declared goal of 400 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is facing a tough challenge at the hands of the INDIA block. The Samajwadi Party and the Congress are no pushovers this time and results are going to cause major disappointment to the BJP.  

 

In Bihar, where the BJP had won 22 seats and its ally the JD (U) had won 16, the contest against the INDIA block is tough and it seems highly unlikely for the BJP to retain its 22 tallies.

 

Going for the BJP in West Bengal, where it had won 18 seats in 2019, is tough. Though the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leaving no stone unturned deploying all tricks up its arms to maintain its last-time tally the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee appears determined to stop the BJP in its tracks.

 

The situation in Haryana, where it had won all 10 seats in 2019, it seems impossible for the BJP to retain its tally in the face of a resurgent Congress which has an alliance with the Aam Admi Party. In the national capital, the BJP’s desperation is evident in the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal which has generated huge sympathy for the opposition alliance. The Modi government’s vindictive action is being perceived as foul play.

 

Turnout at the INDIA block rally on March 31 has dug big holes in the BJP’s claim of crossing 400 seats. Boasts rooted in propaganda invariably prove to be castles in the air. (Words 1015)

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