President Donald Trumps Arabia visit has opened up challenges to BRICS, ties Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar in Abrahamic Accord for officially recognising Israel.
It has messages for India. Trump on May 16 announced that India has offered a trade deal that proposed almost “no tariffs” on US goods, as the South Asian nation seeks to avert higher import and export costs.
Is BRICS dead? Trump on February 14 issued a blunt warning to BRICS nations, threatening a 100 percent tariff on all imports into the US if they proceed with launching a common currency. He said just hours before a scheduled meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, dismissing the economic bloc’s relevance, declaring, “BRICS is dead.”
BRICS is still kicking, but definitely Trump’s aggression for a unipolar dollarized world has thawed it a bit as Russia listens to him for ceasefire with Ukraine and the US-China trade conflict settles for lower tariff.
His agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar add further teeth to the anti-BRICS mission. Trump had said, “I don't care, but BRICS was put there for a bad purpose and most of those people don't want it. They don't even want to talk about it now. They're afraid to talk about it because I told them if they want to play games with the dollar, then they're going to be hit with a 100 percent tariff.”
New Delhi is looking to clinch a trade deal with the US within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9, on so called reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners. On May 8, the White House secured a trade agreement with the United Kingdom, two days after India inked a similar pact with it.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all “wanted to showcase they were open for business, which they were able to do, and they wanted to get the US on side,” Dina Esfandiary, Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics, says. “They wanted to show that they were back in terms of being in America’s graces,” she said, adding that in return, Trump was able to get massive deals with headline figures.
Gulf countries have been looking to revamp their ties with the US, moving away from a transactional oil-for-security understanding to stronger partnerships that are rooted in bilateral investments and shared visions. “It was a “new dawn” in the US’ relationship with the Gulf, Jasmine El-Gamal, a Middle East analyst and former adviser to the Pentagon says.
Saudi Arabia did not get a formalised security deal with the US. That would be replacing the ally, Israel. It came closer to it. Last year, the two nations came close to finalizing a landmark defence and trade pact – but the deal stalled over the Saudi insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood. Trump now gave to Riyadh a handful of arms deals that may pave the way for a wider agreement. At a formal signing ceremony in a gilded ballroom at the Saudi capital’s Royal Court, Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed memoranda of understanding, letters of intent and other executive agreements spanning different government agencies.
Saudi Arabia also committed $600 billion in US investments, including an expansive defence partnership valued at nearly $142 billion, which the US touts as the “largest defence sales agreement in history.” Riyadh did not get a civilian nuclear programme as it insisted on enriching uranium domestically – raising concerns in the US and Israel over nuclear weapons proliferation.
The Saudis are being given massive business opportunity in Syria, as the US lifts sanctions. Trump’s tea with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who until recently had a $10 million US bounty on his head, has opened up billions of dollar opportunity. Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have been keen to invest in Syria.
The baits are enough to keep off BRICS, the US believes. The Saudis are silent since they attended the last BRICS summit in October 2024.
First US President to visit Qatar
Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, says that talks with Trump, a first visit by US President on this trip will “give new impetus to the existing strategic cooperation between the two countries.” They signed a host of deals during Trump’s visit, including a $96 billion agreement for Qatar to acquire up to 210 American-made Boeing planes. Trump also accepted a Boeing 747-8 jet from the Qataris, to be used initially as Air Force One, a gift that is stated to influence the Trump administration.
Qatar is the Gulf state with the most formalized security ties with Washington. It hosts the biggest US military installation in the Middle East, which the State Department describes as “indispensable” for US military operations in the region. It even helped the US in its Afghanistan operations.
Massive AI complex in UAE
The UAE’s main target from Trump’s trip was deeper investments on AI and technology, and while it achieved victories in that regard, the visit fell short of what Abu Dhabi really wanted: unrestricted access to advanced American microchips. Trump gave the UAE a partnership to build a massive data centre in Abu Dhabi to advance AI capabilities with 5-gigawatts of capacity – enough to power a major city. The complex would require 2.5 million chips, bigger than all major AI infra so far.
The Arab states got bsiness opportunities in the US, Syria, and in their own countries. They, however, could not replace the ally Israel and may have to protect it even against their will, a major US gain.
The US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling some $129bn in 2024. India ran a $45.7bn surplus with the US last year, mainly in the form of pharmaceutical products, electrical machinery and jewellery. The Americans have got what they want with various kinds or arm-twisting methods in the region.
Finally, India may get its tariff relief as it extends more to the nutty US relations. India, however is continuing with BRICS as Union Minister of Power and Housing & Urban Affairs Manohar Lal visits Brazil to attend the BRICS Energy Ministers’ Meeting on May 19. This visit underscores India’s determination to actively collaborate with BRICS nations in building a robust, future-oriented, and sustainable energy sector.
( The author : Prof Shivaji Sarkar is a veteran journalist and is associated with Mediamap news network)
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