24

Apr

How  Formidable BJP Looks In Ongoing Elections

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 24 April 2024

Pradeep Mathur

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The first phase of the  2024 Lok Sabha elections is over and the second is just two days. The speculations about the outcome are rife. Many people who  were till the other day   saying that it was a done thing for Prime Minister Modi's BJP are now in a mood of  serious doubt? But for their dilemma they are themselves to blame.

If assembly elections in  West Bengal, Delhi, Himachal and Karnataka in pass three-four years did one thing it was to break the myth of Modi’s capacity to sway the masses and the invincibility of BJP under him. The two successive Lok Sabha election victories in 2014 and 2019 backed up by big money power and massive media campaigns set a narrative that made Mr Modi look larger than life. He was hailed as the darling of the masses and an invincible leader. However, it was always far from the truth.

Article at a Glance

 

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have entered the second phase, and speculations about the outcome are rife. Many people who were confident about Prime Minister Modi's BJP's victory are now having second thoughts. The myth of Modi's invincibility was built on the back of two successive Lok Sabha victories, big money power, and massive media campaigns. However, the assembly elections in West Bengal, Delhi, Himachal, and Karnataka in the past three-four years have broken this myth.

 

Modi's charismatic personality and BJP's electoral victories were made possible by the mistakes of the Congress party and the negative and directionless march of the Left parties. The Opposition was weak and directionless, and Modi took advantage of it. However, Modi's invincibility was shattered when a frail, simple-looking woman, Mamata Banerjee, confronted him in the year 2021.

 

Modi is neither a giant nor a giant killer. He was a successful regional leader who became the Prime Minister due to his strong Hindutva credentials and corporate support. However, his image as the greatest Hindu leader and invincible politician was a myth. The BJP's electoral victories were made possible by the Opposition's weakness and Modi's remarkable skill in using media and demagogy.

 

Despite the BJP's victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Modi's image as a demi-God who is invincible was shattered when Mamata Banerjee defeated his determined bid to unseat her from power in West Bengal in the year 2021. The ongoing elections may shatter the illusion that Modi is a superhuman being who has a divine right to rule granted by the Gods.

No doubt under Modi’s leadership BJP won the 2014 election with an absolute majority ending a 30-year era of coalition governments. But Modi’s charismatic personality and appeal was not the only reason. It was made equally possible by the cumulative effect of the mistakes of omission and commission the Congress party had been committing for a long time. It was also because of a negative and directionless march of the Left parties, a total casteist approach of Left Centre parties like Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Dal, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal. Abandoning a national perspective these minority groups ran their exclusive political agenda.

It was a barren fi as it was eld of no worthwhile Opposition in which Modi and his BJP scored their electoral victories.  Napoleon Bonaparte had said that the crown of France was lying on the ground. He picked it up and put on his head. Similarly  Modi got the crown on a platter from a directionless and leaderless Congress which was as confused as it was weak. Modi thought that he was a Napoleon  and   won the mandate in 2014 as he was the greatest warrior ever born on the electoral stage of Indian democracy. It was a myth that he believed to be true and thus became the narrative of India’s vocal but apolitical educated urban middle classes. They propped Modi and Modi propped them until a frail, simple-looking woman confronted them and called  off the bluff in the year 2021. They suffered even worse humiliation earlier from a novice in politics like Kajeriwal in the year 2020 and a repeat of that in the Delhi Municipal corporation in the year 2022.

Modi is neither a giant nor a giant killer. As a successful regional leader, he was chief minister of a state that ranked No. 7 in terms of population and area. However, lady luck smiled on him when his strong Hinduvat credentials (read anti-Muslim) and corporate support pushed him into the front line of the BJP which was feeling the need for a dynamic leader cast in the L.K Advani mould. Modi’s remarkable skill in using media and demagogy did the rest. The field was wide open. He came, saw and conquered. Cheerleaders said that he was the greatest ever Hindu leader who sat on the throne of Delhi after Prithviraj Chauhan. He believed it and so did his close followers.

In the historic 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP under Modi polled 31.34 % of the total votes cast. Yet it was projected as a mandate of overwhelming support. Soon he and his friends spoke of a Congressless India though the party had a vote share of about 20%.  The strength of his sway was busted the very next year when the Aam Aadmi Party secured 67 seats in the Delhi Assembly reducing the great party of a great leader to 3 seats in a house of 70.

Still, his followers said Modi is great and invincible. The media also said he was great and invincible. We also said yes it is difficult to defeat him in an election.

After five years of rule with great fanfare and the promise to bring moon on the earth the BJP won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with 37.36%. The much-maligned Congress also increased its vote share by nearly 2%.  The 37.36 per cent vote shared was much less than the votes that the Congress got under Mrs. Indira Gandhi when she was voted to power in 1967, 1971 and 1979-80. Yet they claimed that Modi was the heartthrob of the masses  as no other prime minister had ever been .

By defeating Modi’s determined bid to unseat her from power in West Bengal in the year 2021, Mamata Banerjee  proved that Narendra Modi was just another politician and not a demi-God who was invincible. However, despite  gross mismanagement in handling the Covid pandemic and  the BJP's defeat in West Bengal and Delhi assembly elections the urban middle-class devotion for Modi and his quixotic style of functioning remained intact.But large segments of Media  started showing their dissatisfaction with him and took to expressing themselves against him. It was  no longer an act of blasphemy for them. The outcome of the ongoing elections may shatter the illusion that  Modi is a super human being who has a divine right to rule granted by the Gods.

 

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Prof Pradeep Mathur is a veteran journalist, and former professor and Course Director at Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi. He is the  Editor-in Chief  of Mediamap News Network.

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