28

Mar

Maha Kumbh  and  succession war in the BJP

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A person with white hair and glasses AI-generated content may be incorrect.The BJP’s top leadership, often referred to as the Gujarat lobby, is in a catch-22 situation after the Maha Kumbh in Prayagraj, which is being claimed as an epic and highly successful event unprecedented in human history. The BJP leadership’s dilemma is :

If it it as the effective new electoral placard in place of Hindutav whose appeal is clearly weakening  it will lead to projection of U.P. chief minister Yogi Aditya Nath which it clearly does not want.

Or if it does not play it up, what else does the Modi leadership have to offer to the electorate in the coming elections to state assemblies in crucial states like Bihar, West Bengal and U.P.

A powerful section of the BJP-RSS think tank feels that Maha Kumbh has strengthened its credentials in the public mind as a genuine Hindu party, and the majority community will overwhelmingly vote for it, notwithstanding problems like massive unemployment, maladministration, prevalent corruption and rising prices.

The choice for the BJP top brass and the Gujarat lobby is difficult as involved with it is the issue of the succession war whose rumblings are audible now. Notwithstanding what the BJP  IT cell and the goddi media may like us to believe, the fact is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is steadily losing ground support, and a powerful section in the BJP and RSS now thinks that Modi is fast becoming a liability instead of an asset for the Saffron supremacy. Therefore, the succession issue is no longer an academic one.

Now, the dilemma before the BJP top leadership is that if it wants to encash the success of Maha Kumbh, it will have to give credit to U.P. Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath, something it wants to avoid at all costs. And the reason is not difficult to find.

 

Column at a Glance
The BJP leadership, particularly the Gujarat lobby, faces a dilemma following the successful Maha Kumbh event in Prayagraj. They must decide whether to leverage this event as a new electoral strategy, which would elevate U.P. Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath, a figure they prefer to sideline. The party is grappling with declining support for Prime Minister Modi, leading to concerns about succession and the potential liability of Modi's leadership.
Friday Fuss
By Pradeep Mathur
Yogi, who has gained popularity and emerged as a key campaigner, poses a challenge for the Gujarat lobby, which had initially favored another candidate for U.P. chief minister. The BJP's need to win crucial state elections to maintain power at the national level complicates their position. Any attempt to remove Yogi could destabilize the government, making the leadership's decision increasingly precarious as they navigate internal power dynamics and electoral strategies.

Yogi was never the first choice of the powerful Gujarat lobby and the lobby has never reconciled to the fact that Yogi is ruling the biggest state of the country. It is a well-known fact that Manoj Sinha, at present LG of Jammu and Kashmir, was the choice of the Gujarat lobby to be the chief minister of U.P. Yogi is the only BJP chief Minister not handpicked by Modi.

However, the job of sidelining Yogi is not easy, and Modi and his associates know this. For one, Yogi is the darling of the same Hindutva forces and anti-Muslim sentiment that brought Modi to the pinnacle of power. Then, Yogi’s personal character or financial integrity and honesty is beyond any shade of doubt, something which cannot be said of many political leaders in the BJP.  Unlike other big shots in the party, Yogi has no friends in the corporate world.

It is no secret that in the past the Gujarat lobby has made several attempts to remove the Yogi from the seat of power in Lucknow. These attempts could not be successful. Even the attempts to cut him to size have not met with any success. While the popularity graph of the Modi-Shah duo is on the decline, Yogi’s graph is slowly but steadily rising. Moreover, Yogi has emerged as a star campaigner for the party in state assembly elections, indicating that he is developing an all-India following as a saffron leader. 

To return to power at the Centre in 2029, the BJP  must win assembly elections in important states in intervening years and for this, Yogi is a definite asset. He can effectively raise emotional and communal issues that the BJP  under Modi has been harping on. The BJP leadership is not sure if it can sideline Yogin and still go to the polls in the all-important state of U.P. in 2027. Losing U.P. assembly elections could mean losing power at the Centre in 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Therefore, what is the future of Yogi? Will he be allowed to continue as chief minister and lead the BJP in the state assembly election?

The talk that RSS leaders and BJP ministers are going to Lucknow not to discuss the removal and replacement of Yogi but to visit Hazratganj and eat Lucknow delicacies is misleading. They are assessing the implications of removing Yogi. If they just eat kababs in Lucknow and return to Delhi and Nagpur it means that they have found Yogi a hard nut to crack. 

In any case, Yogi is a hard nut to crack. Unlike most other BJP chief ministers, he is not in his position at the mercy of the Modi-Shah duo. He had his following, and his Hindu Vahini was a potential force which could be raised at any time. Heading a very prosperous religious trust, he does not need to look to the Gujarat lobby for finances for his politics. Moreover, he is transparent and has no false front to defend. By all accounts, powerful sections in the RSS are also quite favourably inclined towards him. He also has powerful friends in the Centre, like Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari, who yield considerable influence in  RSS headquarters in Nagpur.

The BJP  top leadership, therefore, fears that any forceful eviction of Yogi from the Chief Minister ship of U.P. may break the legislature party, leading to the fall of the government. This is a risk the minority government of Modi, now under serious pressure from several quarters cannot take.

It is difficult to say how things will shape up in the coming weeks. Only time will answer this question, but as the situation stands now, the  BJP top leadership is certainly in a fix today.

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