21

Jan

Facing US opposition BRICS’s future under India’s chairmanship?

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India assumed the chairmanship of BRICS on the first day of 2026, taking over from Brazil, which hosted the 17th Summit in 2025. Under New Delhi’s leadership, the grouping of ten emerging economies will convene its 18th Summit at a time when the international system is under extraordinary strain. The global order, already shaken by conflicts, economic uncertainty and geopolitical rivalries, is now further unsettled by the return of a hard-line, transactional U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump. Friends and adversaries alike are being subjected to pressure, tariffs and open political coercion, often with scant regard for international law or multilateral norms.

Against this backdrop, policymakers and observers across the world are closely watching how India steers BRICS. Can the forum evolve into a credible counterweight to Washington’s neo-imperial impulses, or will it remain a loose coalition unable to translate economic weight into strategic influence? The question has gained urgency as Trump has revived trade-war rhetoric and openly warned countries against aligning too closely with what he has described as an “anti-American” bloc.

The origins of BRICS lie in an economic idea. The term “BRIC” was coined in 2001 by British economist Jim O’Neill, then at Goldman Sachs, to describe Brazil, Russia, India and China as large emerging economies with the potential to reshape the global economic landscape. What began as an investment concept was gradually transformed into a political platform between 2006 and 2009, and became BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa in 2010. In the years that followed, the grouping expanded further with the entry of countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, the latter becoming the first ASEAN nation to join. From a narrow economic label, BRICS has thus evolved into a broad geopolitical forum representing the aspirations of the non-Western world.

 

India assumed the BRICS chairmanship in 2026 at a time of rising global instability and renewed U.S. assertiveness under President Donald Trump. As Washington pressures allies and rivals alike, attention has turned to whether BRICS can emerge as a strategic counterweight or remain a loose economic coalition.
Wednesday Wisdom
By Satish Misra
Originating as an investment concept in 2001, BRICS has grown into a major geopolitical forum representing over a quarter of global GDP and nearly half the world’s population, with institutions such as the New Development Bank and Contingent Reserve Arrangement. A key issue is de-dollarisation, highlighted by the RBI’s proposal to link BRICS central bank digital currencies for cross-border payments. While this could strengthen financial autonomy, it risks provoking U.S. retaliation. India now faces the delicate task of balancing leadership ambitions with economic and diplomatic prudence.

 

Today, BRICS accounts for more than a quarter of global GDP and nearly half of the world’s population. Over the past decade and a half, it has built an impressive institutional architecture: the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, cooperation mechanisms among central banks, think tanks, statistical agencies and payment systems. These initiatives are aimed at reforming global financial governance and reducing the overwhelming influence of Western-dominated institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

What has particularly unsettled Washington, however, is the bloc’s growing discussion on reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar. The idea of de-dollarisation, though still tentative and uneven, strikes at the heart of American financial power. In this context, reports that the Reserve Bank of India has proposed linking the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) of BRICS members for cross-border trade and tourism payments have drawn considerable attention. Such a move, if pursued, would facilitate settlements in national digital currencies and potentially weaken the dollar’s dominance in intra-BRICS commerce.

According to informed sources, the RBI has recommended that the issue of CBDC interoperability be placed on the agenda of the 2026 BRICS Summit, which India will host later this year. The proposal builds on the 2025 Rio de Janeiro declaration that called for greater integration of payment systems among member states. India has already expressed interest in connecting its e-rupee with other countries’ digital currencies to speed up cross-border transactions and enhance the international use of the rupee, even while officially maintaining that this is not part of a de-dollarisation strategy.

All major BRICS members are currently running pilot projects for their digital currencies. India’s e-rupee, launched in December 2022, has attracted millions of users, while China is actively promoting the global role of the digital yuan. The RBI has encouraged adoption through features such as offline payments, programmability for government transfers and partnerships with fintech firms. Linking these systems across BRICS could, in theory, lower transaction costs, reduce reliance on Western financial infrastructure and create a parallel payment ecosystem.

Yet the political implications are profound. The United States has already warned against attempts to bypass the dollar and has hinted at punitive measures, including tariffs, against countries that challenge its monetary primacy. Trump’s past statements branding BRICS as hostile to American interests underline the sensitivity of the issue. For New Delhi, this creates a strategic dilemma. Pushing ahead with the RBI’s proposal could reinforce India’s leadership credentials within BRICS and advance the group’s long-term objective of financial autonomy. At the same time, it risks provoking Washington at a moment when India is engaged in delicate trade negotiations with the U.S. and seeks to avoid a confrontation that could harm its economic interests.

Reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, National Security Advisor Ajith Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar are cautious about any initiative that might antagonise the Trump administration. India’s past experience with settling trade in local currencies, particularly with Russia, also offers lessons. Accumulation of rupee balances that could not be easily utilised exposed the practical difficulties of bypassing the dollar without robust mechanisms to manage trade imbalances, currency convertibility and financial liquidity. Proposals such as bilateral swap arrangements and periodic settlements are now being discussed, but they require a high degree of trust, technological compatibility and regulatory harmonisation among members.

Moreover, the success of any BRICS-wide digital currency linkage will depend on consensus over governance rules, cybersecurity standards and the choice of technological platforms. Reluctance to rely on systems developed by other countries could slow progress. In an era when even allies are wary of sharing sensitive financial infrastructure, building a truly interoperable network will be a complex and time-consuming task.

India’s chairmanship thus comes at a critical juncture. The grouping’s expanded membership and institutional depth give it unprecedented potential to shape global economic governance. At the same time, internal diversity, differing strategic priorities and external pressure from the United States pose formidable challenges. Whether BRICS can emerge as a coherent force capable of moderating unilateralism and offering the Global South a stronger collective voice will depend largely on how skilfully India balances ambition with prudence.

New Delhi’s leadership will be judged not only by its ability to manage relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing simultaneously, but also by whether it can articulate a clear vision for BRICS that goes beyond symbolism. The digital currency proposal is emblematic of this test. It represents both an opportunity to advance financial innovation and autonomy, and a potential flashpoint in an increasingly polarised world. How India navigates this tightrope will shape not just the future of BRICS, but also its own role in the emerging multipolar order.

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