10

May

West Bengal Elections Leave Poll Analysts Clueless

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Today’s Edition

New Delhi, 10 May 2024

Prof. Shivaji Sarkar

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West Bengal remains the biggest dilemma in the Lok Sabha poll syndrome. The takeover of Kalighat temple by a corporate house, the issue of the Calcutta High Court judge joining the BJP, various allegations against Trinamool Congress (TMC) and a four per cent nationally lower polling after the third phase has clouded the scenario.

None can predict who is ahead, the TMC or BJP. Several issues  may work against both. Low polling is tricky for either of them despite TMC head Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee charging the BJP from the front and posturing that she has done wonderfully well in North Bengal, in the first phase - Alipurduars, Jalpaiguri   and Darjeeling, Cooch Behar, Raigunj, Balurghat, all of which were held by the BJP in the post-Pulwama-Balakot days winning an  unprecedented 18 Lok Sabha  seats for the party  in the  2019 elections.

Article at a Glance

 

The Lok Sabha polls in West Bengal have become a complex and unpredictable scenario. The takeover of the Kalighat temple by a corporate house, allegations against the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and a lower polling percentage have clouded the outcome.

Neither the TMC nor the BJP can be predicted to be ahead, with both parties facing issues that may work against them. The Supreme Court's stay on the Calcutta High Court's order on jobs-for-scam has given a boost to the TMC, while the BJP claims to retain all seats.

The election has become a tricky game, with the Bengali electorate unhappy with both parties and concerned about issues like electoral bonds, rising prices, and unemployment. The outcome remains uncertain, with surprises possible in this no-wave election.

The BJP is claiming that they would retain all the seats this time, which is contested by the TMC. Mamata is said to have worked hard to win the trust of Gorkhas in Darjeeling and others at different seats. She has got a shot in the arm with the Supreme Court staying the Calcutta High Court order on jobs-for-scam of S26,000 primary school teachers.

The TMC cites the dishonesty and tilted judgments of Justice Abhijit Gangopadhyay in many of the cases as he straightaway jumped from the bench to BJP to contest from Tamluk, a stronghold of BJP’ Shubhendu Adhikari’s family. It touches the senses of finicky Bengalis.

But BJP’s state president Sukanta Majumdar wishes that away and claims that the state government’s wayward moves on teachers’ recruitments, a ration scandal, and a widespread perception that TMC leaders and cadres are involved in minting money from the poor beneficiaries of government programmes and extortion rackets have hit the TMC hard.

In the third phase at least three seats -Murshidabad, Berhampore and Maldah - may neither go to BJP nor TMC.

The Bengali bhadralok detests the TMC definitely for deceitfulness. That does not mean they would vote for the BJP. They are unhappy with the BJP as well for the way they conducted the Parliament sessions. They have an extreme dislike for the expulsion of 146 MPs from the Lok Sabha. Most Bengalis did not like the defamation cases in the Gujarat court against Rahul Gandhi, though Congress's presence is limited to a few seats, his expulsion, cancellation of his official bungalow and the religious frenzy the party has created.

They are not less annoyed over the expulsion and accusations against Bengal’s firebrand TMC MP, Mohua Moitra, for raising “relevant issues in house” now contesting from Krishnanagar.

The electoral bonds, rising prices and unemployment echo everywhere.

Despite state BJP raking up the Ram mandir, its impact is limited to mostly among non-Bengali working classes coming from Bihar, UP and the Marwari business class. Sailing may not be easy for the BJP.

Mamata is worried about the EC figures. A few days back she said, “After the first and second phases, polling percentage was reported in various newspapers as per information from the Election Commission. Last night, I learnt that there was a sudden jump in final voter turnout by nearly 5.75 per cent following a notice released by the Election Commission” at a public rally in Murshidabad’s Farakka on May 1.  “You (ECI) should not become BJP's Commission. How did the polling percentage increase suddenly? In BJP-ruled states, it should be clarified if EVM machines are replaced or not. There are apprehensions of manipulation of results by the BJP. There were 19 lakh EVM machines that were missing. I would urge EC to clear people's doubt,” she said.

The low polling and later EC figures could be crucial. The sudden rise of figures is a matter of discussion among all parties and the people. Without munching much they raise the fingers at the EC ways. Mostly they agree with Mamata. Would they have sympathy for her in the next phases? Difficult to say but they do not like “manipulations” or parliamentary misdemeanours. 

Dealing with alienated voters can be tricky. To get them to show up at the polling booths, the parties need to up their game in mobilising the stay-at-homes through either persuasion or pressure.

The BJP has another problem though it may not have anything to do with it. The control of Calcutta’s presiding deity Ma Kali temple at Kalighat has been taken away through alleged manipulations in the temple trust by a corporate house from Ahmedabad. It hurts the Bengali ego. They wonder how in a game of politics, a temple of yore could change hands through devious modes. It hurts Bengali pride and religious sentiments.

The temple earns a fortune in donations. Its riches could attract a biz house that is unthought of by the Bengalis. They wonder how they could have it back. They fear it may no longer have Bengali priests in control. Though seemingly innocuous it may mean a lot in political terms.

So a largely less dharmic Bengali may get swayed by their Ma Kali. They don’t like their Ma being under the control of an almost alien “westerner”.  Many say though Bengal’s voters detest the takeover, but it won’t exactly be a political issue. All agree in case of a reaction it may not help the “Hindi heartland party”. Tricky it could be.

Defeating the BJP is equally imperative for the TMC, who wants to wrest most seats from the BJP. Also, as a powerful and significant partner of the Indian National Inclusive Developmental Alliance (INDIA), the TMC wants to win more seats and increase its heft in future decision-making.

That’s another peculiarity. Despite the TMC being in INDIA, it is not in alliance with either the Congress or the Left. It does not mind hitting both the hard. Congress leader Adhir Chaudhury, who has been leading the party in its charges against the NDA government in Lok Sabha, is not on good terms with Mamata.

But the Congress-Left alliance is giving a tough time to TMC and BJP in Murshidabad being contested by CPI-M general secretary Mohd Salim, and a constituency adjacent to Berhampur being contested by Chaudhury. The workers of both parties are working in tandem. Possibly this is the first time that the CPI-M cadre is dedicatedly working to ensure Congress win its seats. CPI-M workers are reportedly helping Congress candidate Isha Khan Chaudhury, nephew of former union minister ABA Ghani Khan Chaudhury retain Maldah.

But BJP’s ‘Nirbhaya Didi’ Sreerupa Mitra-Chaudhury, MLA from English Bazar, has grabbed public attention with her unique campaign style rattling both the TMC and Congress in Maldah. The TMC candidate, Shahnawaz Ali Raihan is an Oxford scholar. He was a voice against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee was so piqued up by Mitra-Chaduhury that addressing a rally called her“behaya” (shameless). It led to the issuance of a notice to Banerjee by the National Commission for Women. Mitra-Chaudhury was a prominent voice against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

CPI-M claims resurgence in its cadre. That could also change the fortune of Bengal. With two MPs in the last Lok Sabha, the Congress has to keep these safe. In a low turn-out poll, all Cong-Left alliances could hurt the BJP and TMC as they could grab a share of either or both of them in different areas.

But two per cent fewer votes from 84.08 per cent in the first phase and a 4.5 per cent decline despite a 76.58 per cent turnout in the second as also two per cent less voting in the third are crucial for BJP and TMC in a cut-throat competition. The BJP in Bengal also suffers from severe infighting and reported apathy of the organisational cadre. The booth management of the BJP has become the weakest.

The TMC has also to fight out on the Sandeskhali serial exploitation of women by its three MLAs in the Basirhat constituency. It has a chain of workers to fight out the challenge posed by a supposed Sandeshkhali victim Rekha Patra, now BJP candidate.

Overall the TMC has the advantage of support comprising women voters and a sizeable section of Muslim voters in several districts bordering Bangladesh. Still, it is one of the most unpredictable elections for any of the parties. In a no-wave election, with various issues pitted against parties, Bengal may spring enough surprises.

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