5

Feb

Delhi Elections : Why  Forecasts So Often Go Wrong ?

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Prof Pradeep Mathur

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New Delhi | Wednesday | 5 February 2025

Forecasting the outcome of  an election has become quite a favourite job for many people and big business for media. However, the job is usually  done without any seriousness . Instead of any analysis of the data base or study of social trends the predictions are made without scientific basis. Little wonder election result forecasts often go wrong and in many cases these are wide of the mark.

In the past 10 months we have seen the elections to the Lok Sabha and eight state assemblies. The forecasts have been at variance  from the actual in most of the cases.

Last year the BJP  launched a high- voltage  campaign for the Lok Sabha elections  claiming that it was poised to win more than 400 seats and many  of us took a resounding victory of the party for granted. We were made to believe that   the Modi wave  was all- around and the party will sweep the elections. However, the results proved otherwise. There was no wave and the BJP could not get even a simple majority of 272 seats what to say of 400 plus seats. The forecasters again proved wrong when the  elections to the state assemblies of Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Haryana and Maharashtra took place.

The question upper most in everybody’s mind is that will forecasts about the outcome of the  Delhi assembly elections  prove to be right  when the results are  out later this week ?

Generally three things are being said about the Delhi election results :

 

Article at a Glance
The article critiques the often inaccurate forecasts of election outcomes, particularly in India, where predictions are frequently made without rigorous analysis or scientific basis. Recent elections, including the Lok Sabha and various state assemblies, have shown significant discrepancies between forecasts and actual results, notably the BJP's failure to secure a majority despite claims of a "Modi wave."
As the Delhi assembly elections approach, three main narratives have emerged regarding potential outcomes, primarily focusing on the BJP, AAP, and Congress. However, the article argues that these narratives overlook critical factors influencing voter sentiment, such as corruption charges against AAP leaders, the Modi government's performance, and the rise of Congress.
It concludes that the media's failure to accurately gauge public opinion stems from non-professional influences and a decline in rigorous field reporting, leading to misguided predictions.

 

1.    BJP will get an absolute majority and come to power as people are sick of a corrupt Kajeriwal and his Aam Admi Party( AAP) govt which has done nothing for Delhi.

2.    Kajeriwal  and his AAP will return to power though with a much reduced majority .

3.    The Congress has no chances, and the fight is between  the BJP and the AAP.

Without commenting on the merits of this three-point narrative and thus taking the risk of  a prediction  let us examine why this narrative has taken place.

1.    The court cases and arrest of AAP leaders and the corruption charges against them.

2.    The BJP’s powerful election campaign running down Kajeriwal and the AAP Government .

3.    The entry of the Congress as a third party in the contest and its attack on the AAP government.

However, those who have built this narrative have missed some points and their impact on the voter mind.

1.    The government and its prosecuting agencies were not able to prove charges and convince the judicial authorities about the wrong doings of the AAP leaders.

2.    At the behest of the Modi government at the Centre the  Lt Governor of Delhi has been  acting as a hurdle in the work of the AAP government including the implementation of some popular schemes of mass welfare. AAP leaders have said  this in their election meetings

3.    The not-so-good record of the Modi government at the Centre and the growing unemployment, increase in prices of essential commodities and signs of a slowdown of economy. Coupled with anti-incumbency factor of the Modi Government  this record is hardly inspiring for the politically conscious voters of Delhi 

4.    The strong Opposition onslaught on the BJP Government  on issues like Adani and Manipur,  something which the BJP did not counter.

5.    The diminishing value of the communal card which the BJP usually plays during an  election campaign.

6.    Despite a very hectic campaign and a determined bid to capture power in the 2020 election, the BJP could make no dent in the AAP forte in Delhi  and got a mere three seats in the 70-member assembly. What all has BJP done since then to expect a resounding victory in this election ?

7.    The rise of the Congress as a political force and its likely impact on the poll prospects of both BJP and AAP. 

It is obvious that those who are predicting a comfortable victory for BJP have not taken these factors and their impact on voter mind in their calculation.

The question is why the forecasts about the outcome of an election so very often go wrong.

Basically there are three players who contribute to our understanding of an election scenario. They are political  leaders –big and small- and their followers, media and the self-appointed spokespersons of society who  understand little and talk a lot. They create an impression in favour or against a party or its candidates because of emotional and personal  considerations. They  hardly represent the silent majority of voters which decide the fate of a party or a candidate.

While the party leaders are supposed to talk  the victory chances of their parties and the self-appointed spokespersons of society cannot be taken seriously only the media and election analysts are supposed to read the electoral seen objectively to forecast the outcome of an election. However, they too often fail and many times they are also wide off the mark. This is as surprising as it is unfortunate. But the question is why media fails in accurate prediction of an election result ?  

  The role of media in reporting and analysing  an election is a matter of detailed discussion . However, at this stage it is sufficient to say that two factors are responsible for media’s inability to judge the public mood. One factor is that many non-professional considerations compromise its coverage and the other is that the new  generation of journalists has become shy of rigorous field reporting. Hence there are no correct and unbiased inputs from any source to make an accurate analysis of the election scene and make right forecasts.

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