6

Jun

Modi’s political skills under severe test?

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Dr Satish Misra

New Delhi, 6 June 2024

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi moves to take oath at the Rashtrapati Bhavan for the third time in succession for the country’s highest executive chair on coming |Saturday, his leadership style will also be facing a severe test as he will require consummate and cold skills to deal with alliance partners like TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who have been the past masters of the coalition politics.               

 

Amid the buzz that the INDIA Opposition bloc, which has sprung a surprise by winning 232 seats, is trying to reach out to Kumar and Naidu, both JDU and TDP while stressing that they will stay with the NDA are keeping their cards close to their respective chests.

 

The BJP has won 240 Lok Sabha seats -- 32 short of the majority mark. TDP and JDU together hold 28 seats and along with BJP's other allies, NDA will be past the magic figure.

 

But Naidu and Kumar -- both Coalition-era veterans -- are skilled in bargaining and know how to make their support count. If the BJP crossed the majority mark on its own, allies would have to be happy with what they got, but the numbers have opened a window of opportunity and the veterans won't miss it.

Article at a Glance

 

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to take oath for the third time, his leadership style will be put to the test. With the BJP falling short of a majority, Modi must negotiate with alliance partners like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, who are skilled in coalition politics.

Naidu and Kumar are expected to drive a hard bargain, with Naidu seeking special status for Andhra Pradesh and sustained economic benefits. The JDU has hinted at demands, including a nationwide caste census.

Modi, who has ruled with a comfortable majority in the past, must now navigate the complexities of coalition politics. The question is whether he can adapt to this new reality and balance the interests of his party with those of his coalition partners, as former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee did during his tenure.

On the other hand, Modi, whose years in power since 2001 have been with a comfortable majority of his party, has been ruling with ease and diktat riding roughshod over his opponents both within his party and in the opposition. At 73 to his utter dislike, Modi is being forced by people’s mandate to negotiate with partners who are far superior to him in dealing with demands of coalitions.            

 

While JDU has hinted at what it may ask for, TDP has been tight-lipped.

 

Speaking to the media, senior JDU leader KC Tyagi said the party would consider joining the government "if an invitation is extended". We expect the new government to consider giving special category status to Bihar and conduct a nationwide caste census."

 

 Though Tyagi has, clarified that these are not conditions for JDU's support of NDA demands that are made behind the curtains will set the tone. "Our support is unconditional. But the unemployment in Bihar will not end till Bihar gets special status. So, keeping in mind the support NDA has received from Bihar, we hope there will be an initiative to give Bihar special status," he said.

 

Interestingly, the caste census has been one of the key issues raised by the INDIA Opposition bloc in the run-up to this election. Ahead of Nitish Kumar's latest flip-flop, his coalition government with RJD and Congress had also conducted a caste survey in Bihar. "Narendra Modi has never opposed a nationwide caste census. Time demands it," Tyagi stressed.

 

As for Naidu, there is little clarity on what he may demand from the BJP leadership. TDP sources suggest that the party may ask for plum ministries at the Centre. A preferential status for Andhra Pradesh is another key issue that may come up in the negotiations. It was a dispute over a special status demand that had prompted Naidu to part ways with the BJP in 2016.

 

For the TDP chief, who has returned to power in Andhra Pradesh with a thumping win, the task is cut out. The massive mandate for his party has come on a promise to rebuild the state and to develop a capital city. Naidu, often referred to as the first CEO Chief Minister for his record of promoting ease of business and developing cities, has to ensure he delivers on his promises. More so to secure his son Nara Lokesh's political future.

 

Naidu will extract his pound of flesh from New Delhi. He is a strategic negotiator, patient, and calibrated. Given the numbers - around 238 seats for the BJP, the single largest party, and 100 for runner-up Congress - it would seem difficult for the INDIA bloc to cobble numbers.

 

Naidu is acutely aware of this, but keeping the INDIA bloc option in play only increases his bargaining power with the NDA. And he is expected to drive a very tough bargain.

 

Special status for Andhra Pradesh is already a major demand, but Naidu is more likely to focus on sustained economic benefits for his state. He was the architect of the Hyderabad IT dream, but it was cut short by a series of political disasters. First, the successive losses in 2004 and 2009, and then the bifurcation of the state.

 

From all accounts, the Modi-Shah duo seem to be in an utter hurry to stake claim to form the government to deny India any opportunity to woo away Naidu and Kumar from the NDA. Modi was elected the leader of the NDA and both TDP and JD (U) gave written assurance of support. Forming a government is far easier than running a coalition government which is a cool operation executed with a sound mind.         

 

While former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee ran the coalition government for six long years balancing the BJP’s interests with the interests of his coalition partners, the question today is whether Modi has any of those skills. Can Modi like Vajpayee stoop to conquer?

 

But stooping has never been his style all these years but then the slogan ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ may again stump the nation.

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