27

Aug

Is BJP caught in the web of its own making?

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N Sathiya Moorthy

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Chennai | Tuesday | 27 August 2024

Following the conclusion of the Lok Sabha elections, it was widely assumed that the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, would shift its approach, especially since Modi was now leading a coalition government for the first time in his long political career. This assumption was rooted in the belief that the BJP would now focus more on accommodating its allies and working for the collective good of the nation. However, subsequent events have proven this prediction wrong.

It appears that the BJP has chosen not to alter its course. Rather than changing its style of governance, the party seems to be stuck in a cycle of its own making over the past decade. Modi's government, which has enjoyed largely unchallenged power, now seems uncertain about how to navigate the complex challenges that come with coalition politics. It seems as though they are continuing with their old strategies, expecting that those who oppose them, both within the NDA coalition and outside, will speak up first, allowing the BJP to react as it deems necessary.

This approach has not only affected the administration but has also extended to the BJP's treatment of its political opponents. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party, continues to be a target of the BJP's verbal attacks, with the Prime Minister leading the charge. Despite Congress showing signs of recovery in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP continues to label the party as "anti-national," seemingly believing that this narrative will still resonate with voters.

 

Article at a Glance
Despite expectations that the BJP would shift its approach after the Lok Sabha elections, the party appears to be stuck in its old ways. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, the BJP continues to rely on negative campaigning and divisive rhetoric, targeting political opponents like Rahul Gandhi and labeling the Congress party as "anti-national."

The upcoming assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jammu and Kashmir will test the effectiveness of this strategy. The BJP's ability to adapt to coalition politics and manage its relationships with allies like the JD(U) and TDP will be crucial to its future success.

With the Indian electorate's aspirations evolving, the BJP must recognize that it cannot rely solely on its traditional voter base and must adapt to maintain its dominance. The party's ability to navigate these challenges will determine its future in Indian politics.

 

The question now is whether this strategy of negative campaigning will continue to be effective. The results of the upcoming assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) may provide some answers. For the BJP, the election in J&K holds particular significance. If the party wins or performs well in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, it will claim it as a victory against the "anti-national" Congress-led opposition. However, if the BJP performs poorly, the narrative may shift to one of national security threats, with the party likely blaming external factors for any setbacks.

The presence of RSS veteran Ram Madhav as the head of the BJP's campaign strategy in J&K is a reminder of the party's controversial alliance with the People's Democratic Party (PDP) during the last assembly elections. At the time, the BJP was willing to form a coalition with the PDP, despite its differences, in order to gain power. However, once the BJP realized that the PDP was gaining ground at its expense, it quickly withdrew its support, leaving J&K under President's rule.

In recent months, the Modi-led government has taken steps that seem designed to test the loyalty of its allies, particularly the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). By introducing controversial measures like the Waqf Board bill and proposals for lateral entry into government positions, the BJP has likely anticipated some resistance from these parties. The government's strategy appears to be a win-win: if the allies support the initiatives, the BJP wins. If they resist, the BJP can still claim to have tried to address important issues while portraying its allies as uncooperative.

One of the key issues currently on the table is the caste census, particularly in Bihar, where JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been advocating for a nationwide caste census. This issue is of significant electoral consequence, as the BJP cannot afford to alienate SC-ST communities across the country. However, balancing the demands of its allies with its own political agenda has become increasingly difficult for the BJP.

Looking back, the BJP's current situation is reminiscent of the time when the party, under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani, came out with the "Chennai Declaration" in 1998. At that time, the BJP chose to put controversial Hindutva issues on hold until it had a clear majority in the Lok Sabha. This strategy worked to an extent, but the coalition government was ultimately brought down by its own internal disagreements.

Today, the BJP finds itself in a similar position. While it remains the dominant force in Indian politics, it must carefully manage its relationships with its allies to avoid a repeat of history. Nitish Kumar and TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu may not be as focused on bringing down the government as Jayalalithaa was in 1998, but the BJP would be wise not to underestimate the importance of coalition politics. The party's traditional voter base may still support it, but the changing aspirations of the Indian electorate suggest that the BJP will need to adapt if it hopes to maintain its dominance in the years to come.

In conclusion, while the BJP's past strategies may have worked in securing power, the political landscape is evolving. The party must recognize that it cannot rely solely on divisive rhetoric and negative campaigning to maintain its position. With upcoming assembly elections and the ever-present challenges of coalition politics, the BJP's ability to adapt will be crucial to its future success.

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(The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator)

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