9

Aug

Elections 2024: Will Hindutva work for BJP again?

image

New Delhi, August 9, 2023

Now there is a talk of announcement of the construction of a big mandir of Sita Mata at Sitamarhi in Bihar which is believed to be the birthplace of Bhagwan Ram's wife.

Pradeep Mathur

Hindutva, the sectarian, obscurantist and ruthlessly aggressive brand of liberal and tolerant Hindu religion, has carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP to the top echelons of state power in India. The big question is will Hindutva help Modi in getting another term when the country goes to polls a few months from now?

The question is important for two reasons. First, Hindutva has worked as a magic wand in the hands of Modi, Amit Shah and their cohorts called the Gujarat Lobby, who mesmerized the voters. The other is that whatever claims the Gujarat lobby may make about the progress of the country and its international clout, they will finally bank on rank communal propaganda to win the elections. Hindutva is their most reliable and lethal weapon to win elections. And tougher the elections, the greater their dependence on the communal card as we saw in the recent Karnataka Assembly elections.

Therefore, while assessing the prospects of Modi's BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections, it is natural to assess the efficacy of Hindutva. After the coming together of 26 plus opposition parties in a joint front called INDIA, the challenge for Modi's BJP is far tougher as compared to the two previous Lok Sabha elections. Modi knows it, but he also believes that the masses, the majority Hindus, can be easily swayed by playing the emotional card based on their faith. And almost all political observers and analysts believe that the BJP leadership will bring out a new communal issue from its hat to sway the Hindu masses in its bid for a repeat of its two victories.

It is a pity that instead of focusing on real issues like employment, health, education and social welfare, we are guessing what Kamal Card, the BJP, will produce at the final moment to surprise the opposition and mesmerize the voters to win the elections. The Uniform Civil Code is being debated, issues like Gyanvyapi Mosque, Ram Mandir at Ayodhya and Eidgah at Mathiura, about which Hindus are sensitive are already in the air.

Now there is a talk of announcement of the construction of a big mandir of Sita Mata at Sitamarhi in Bihar which is believed to be the birthplace of Bhagwan Ram's wife.

But whatever it may be, it is clear that the BJP will fight the next elections on the plank of Hindutva but the question is will it work? Modi's blind followers in and outside the BJP are sure that it will work to support them in the pro- Modi national media and the vocal but politically illiterate, educated, urban, middle and lower middle class, especially in North India.

But they may not be correct.The reason is that those talking about Modi's invincibility are talking more because of blind faith in him rather than facts.

The fact is that in 2019 as well as in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got only 37.46 and 37.25% of the total votes. In view of large-scale discontent against the Modi government, this figure will only go down in the next elections, whatever magic wand Modi may bring out of his hat The fact is that out of 28 states, BJP is in power it is only in 10 states pm its own.

The fact is that BJP is fighting with its back to the Wall in four major states of MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana where assembly elections are to be held in around 100 days. By all calculations. BJP is surely going to lose at least three of these four states.

The fact is that in Maharashtra, the coalition government propped up by the BJP is on a very shaky wicket. It can fall any day.

The fact is that BJP 's coalition government in Haryana is encountering serious problems, endangering its stay in office. First the forwards agitation, then the agitation by women wrestlers eroded its vast space in this jat- dominated state.

Then there are other problems as well. Wiser by experience, the opposition parties realized that over the years, they allowed the BJP to project itself as the only party of Hindus and all others as indifferent to Hindu interests. To discount this image, Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi now go to temples and do pooja. It is no more advantage BJP.

The Hindutva card is not an invisible weapon. It's free use by the BJP leaders in West Bengal assembly elections year before last and in Karnataka elections this year could not save the Gujarat lobby from a humiliating defeat. It also did not work in many other elections and by-elections held recently.

Hindutva is an election strategy that appeals to emotions. Now there are two problems with this. Emotions can be raised to a high pitch for some time. but they emotions are not a permanent feature of human mind. Once the emotions cooled down, you will revert to rational thinking. In the year 2013 West UP districts saw a flare up leading to large scale violence between Hindus and Muslims. In the year 2021, the two communities joined hands to protest against the three Farmer Acts and publicly regretted that they fought against each other.8 years ago.

Despite BJP leaders continued hate campaign many people quite a few in BJP ranks are now saying that the hate campaign should stop. Moreover, of late it has stopped giving electoral dividends.

Another problem with the use of the Hindu card is that it forces all minority voters to join together and vote against BJP.Enchanted by the slogan of Ache Din, Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and the promise of rosy prospects for the economy, a sizeable section of voters from minority communities voted for Modi, forgetting BJPs communal origin and Modi’s Gujarat riots. But their support soon started dwindling. BJP hotheads said they did not want minority votes. as the Hindu majority will give them overwhelming support and make them victorious. But then, it did not happen and BJP started losing in many elections.

That the magic of the Hindu card can rally round all Hindus is a myth, But BJP has unshakable faith in it and this is the biggest danger for the saffron party in coming elections.

Even if we accept that BJP gets no minority votes and only Hindus vote for it, the fact is that BP got only 37 plus votes out of 80% which Hindus, as per their proportional population must have cast. This means that about 43% of Hindus did not vote for BJP in the 2014 and 2019 elections despite the Hindutva card.

Whatever BJP 's propaganda machine may say, and whatever Modi Bhakts may claim, the BJP” victories in the two previous elections have been because of deep divisions in the opposition ranks and the Congress failure to put up a determined fight led by an experienced leader. Then the opposition parties in the north made strategic mistakes in forging alliances and picking up election campaign issues.

To say that Modi is invincible is a myth. So is it to say that the greater original strength of RSS is a winning factor. There were far bigger leaders than Modi who were defeated at the polls and RSS was always there in a much more disciplined form before the year 2014. But it could not bring BJP to power with an absolute majority ever before.

Neither Hindu nor .Modi is the magic wand. It was the weaknesses and confusion in the opposition ranks that brought Modi to a point where he attained the image of a superhero. As Napolean Bonaparte said that he found the crown of France lying on the ground and picked it up. Modi got the Prime Ministership on the platter.,

Having realized their mistakes and suffering all kinds of humiliation at the hands of the Modi government the opposition leaders are now a chastened lot. They have sublimated their egos and scaled down their ambitions. The Congress too has now got a chief from outside the Nehru Gandhi clan depriving the BJP of a convenient point to attack its principal opposition party. And moreover, the 26 parties are now a determined lot with a one-point agenda of ousting the BJP government from power.

In this vastly changed scenario, it is highly doubtful if any magic wand from the basket of Hindutva will win Modi’s BJP another term when the country goes to elect a new government at the Centre

  • Share:

About Us

We must explain to you how all seds this mistakens idea off denouncing pleasures and praising pain was born and I will give you a completed accounts..

Contact Us

Contact Info

  • 70, Gyan Khand- 4, Indirapuram, Ghaziabad. Uttar Pradesh.
  • +91-9810533682
  • info@mediamap.co.in
  • Week Days: 09.00 to 18.00 Sunday: Closed