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In simple terms, caste-based census is a move in the direction of completing the unfinished agenda of the Mandal Commission.

Pradeep Mathur

Despite a lot of opposition. from the government of Mr Narendra Modi at the centre, a determined Nitish Kumar. Government in Bihar conducted a caste based census and released its findings.
It hardly reveals anything that was not known or anticipated before but the move has created a lot of controversy. It is being viewed from various angles and, as expected, the rival political coalitions the BJP dominated NDA and the Congress led INDIA have taken diametrically opposite positions. In these circumstances it has become almost impossible to talk about the long term implications of this move on our society.
In simple terms caste based census is a move in the direction of completing the unfinished agenda of the Mandal Commission. As we know, the recommendations of Mandal Commission, a body set up by the Janata Party government of Mr Morarji Desai in 1979, were accepted in a huff by the coalition government of Raja Vishwanath Pratap Singh in 1990 to ensure its survival. The move did not save his government but divided the. Multilayer Indian Society as never before.
The unfortunate fact about Mandal Commission is that right from the start, it has been projected more as a political move rather than a step in the direction of building a truly participatory democratic society. While it should have been viewed as a step in the direction of a social reforms movement, it was viewed as a move of political expediency. The process of social reformation started by Raja Rammohan Roy at the start of the 19 century what is often called as Indian Renaissance remains unfinished even today. It continues to be the biggest hurdle in the socio economic development of our country even now.
Why the agenda of social reform of Hindu minority Indian society has remained unfinished and who all have sabotaged our march towards an equitable society based on principles of social justice is a long story. But the caste census will lead to an electoral battle for the 2024 elections, which will be based more on caste and cultural issues rather than on issues of development and economic growth.
One need not be a political astrologer to say that the card of caste based census will be played by the opposition alliance to make a serious dent in the BJP strongholds in backward. class dominated states of UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, which gave BJP 90 of the 300 seats. The important thing is to understand how BJP retaliates to this apposition onslaught to its position. And BJP will surely do that if it wants another term in office. BJP is most likely to make at all-out effort to break the Nitish Lalu alliance in Bihar and Akhilesh Mayawati Congress alliance in UP to benefit from a division of votes. But it is not going to be so simple this time.
For one, the BJP is excitability is much lower this time compared to 2019 elections. The economic situation of lower class and middle lower middle class masses is really bad and unemployment is at all time high. Then the opposition under the Congress leadership has really gained strength and fence-sitters like Mayawati's BSP can see a possible alternative in I.N.D.I.A.
The BJP leadership is likely to meet the challenge by promoting false propaganda and there is gullible media to convert it into news for mass consumption, though it may be entirely false. There are signs that that BJP has already started doing this. Business news like Nitish Kumar and Kejriwal looking to move out of INDIA and differences between Priyanka and Rahul on putting certain leaders in party positions are already finding place in a section of media. Such rumour campaigns to confuse opposition leaders and public opinion are going to intensify in coming days as elections approach near.
But the more serious implication of the impact of caste based census on BJP strategy will be a move towards and even sharper polarization on Communal lines.
The aggressive Hindutva agenda will in all likelihood be intensified. There will always be a risk of violent sectarian clashes in this, but whether it will help BJP as in the past is difficult to say.
Since the late Pramod Mahajan days, BJP's political operations and poll campaigns have never been short of money. In the past few years, we have seen a flush with money BJP spending lavishly on political operations, advertising and media to mould things in their way. And BJP is going to do the same in the prelude to the coming elections in UP, Bihar and West Bengal, where its position is being seriously challenged. However, BJP's top brass of the Gujarat lobby does not know the fact that money alone cannot buy the mass support of people in these 3 states which have a history of sacrifice for a cause they that appeals to them.
The caste based census issue, now in public domain after the declaration of the data is being discussed at ground level and in media, its impact is sure to be felt all around. For one, it will break of Hindu Muslim divide and bring facts of inequality of opportunity on the central stage. Anything that seeks to put focus on economic development based on principle of social justice and takes the public discourse away from emotional issues is unwelcome to BJP leadership.
Backward classes suffer from no social segregation like the dalits who were treated as untouchables by upper caste Hindus. They are backward because they lacked education and missed the march towards modernization. This made them superstitious, orthodox and God fearing. The BJP took advantage of this and attracted them by its religious appeal. They got emotionally hooked towards the BJP and supported the party in the past two decades. But the farmers agitation showed them the real face of BJP. The caste based census will sharpen this realization.
It is being said that the caste based census was a master stroke of Nitish Kumar to settle this scores with Modi. Will this prove to be a game changer when the country goes to the polls next year?Only time will tell.

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New Delhi, 05, October 2023

In simple terms, caste-based census is a move in the direction of completing the unfinished agenda of the Mandal Commission.

Pradeep Mathur