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The move to use big leaders may damage the saffron party as defeat in the three Hindi heartland states will send the top leadership looking for cover in the general elections next year.

Dr Satish Misra

News that the BJP is using ‘heavy duty’ armament or in other words is fielding senior or superannuated leaders in the electoral battle arena of coming assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram is rather a confirmation of news from informed sources that the Modi-Shah led ruling party is facing serious challenge from the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

It is a common knowledge that all important and crucial decisions in the latest edition of the BJP are taken or approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. So decision to field sitting members of Parliament, former ministers in central and state governments and senior office bearers of the party is a well calculated strategic move to counter the growing acceptance of the opposition parties particularly of the Congress by the electorate of the five states.

At the same time, the move also means that the top leadership has learnt a lesson from the party’s defeat in Karnataka earlier this year that the party’s super NaMo weapon is losing its efficacy. The Prime Minister’s image and popularity in public perception is eroding fast and is no longer enough to carry the day for the BJP.

Conclusion that the Modi-Shah duo has drawn for the new strategy is not an off the cuff thought.The Prime Minister and the Home Minister, by virtue of the position that they hold, get ground reports about the prevailing political situation in the five states going to poll from the country’s intelligence agencies.

A dispassionate and non-partisan analysis of the emerging political realities in five states confirm that coming electoral battle is going to be very tough for the BJP and what is really perturbing for the ruling party’s electoral strategists is the fact that the Congress is the main rival in four states with the exception of Mizoram where over four months long ongoing violence and ethnic strife in Manipur has made the BJP a pariah.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is fighting the battle with its back to the wall. Not only that there are factional infighting in the state unit of the party but sidelining of the three times former chief minister Raman Singh from the state politics by making him the national vice president has created a leadership vacuum.

The leadership in Delhi has realized that it cannot afford to project any other leader as its chief ministerial face. To add proverbial salt to the injury, the weakening of the image of PM Modi who could earlier swing votes through his tireless campaigning has pushed the top leadership to use heavy artillery of senior leaders fervently hoping that they would work hard to win their respective seats in expectation that they have a chance to be the choice of the high command for the chief ministerial chair.

But unfortunately, the decision has made many of the senior leaders, who feel being on the firing line, nervous and apprehensive about their future. The high command has taken the step without consulting them and this has hurt their political egos.

In Madhya Pradesh, situation on the ground is far more complex as the anti-incumbency against Shivraj Signh Chauhan, who has been on the chief ministerial chair for 13 years first and then for another three years again toppling the Congress government of chief minister Kamal Nath in 2020, is running high. Several cases of corruption against the BJP government has made the regime unpopular.

Since stakes are very high in Madhya Pradesh the BJP high command has played cards close to the chest. The party has so far released three lists which has names of big leaders including Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste along with sitting Lok Sabha MPs Ganesh Mantri, Rakesh Singh and Riti Pathak to contest coming assembly elections.

Apparently, Modi-Shah duo has not taken Shivraj Singh Chauhan into confidence and uncertainty prevails whether the sitting chief minister will be fielded or not. Rumours are taking a heavy toll on the confidence of many sitting MLAs who are apprehending that they may be denied party tickets this time.

In Rajasthan, the BJP had the best chance to wrest power from the Congress government of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot but utter neglect rather royal ignore of the two times state chief minister Vasundhare Raje has made the electoral asthmatic complex. Tussle in the BJP is between an arrogant high command and a leader who enjoys rapport with people and has a big following in the party.

While Modi-Shah duo seem to be determined to undermine the importance of Raje and are even going to the extent of insulting her, the latter is not ready to surrender and appears to be ready to covertly assist Gehlot with whom she enjoys amicable relationship.

In Telangana, it is become increasingly clear that the contest is between the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) of Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao and the Congress. The BJP has been pushed to a distant third position. In this scenario, the BJP is likely to assist the BRS covertly as a victory of the Congress in the southern state will be far more damaging for PM Modi’s reputation.

The chances of the BJP in Mizoram are almost zero. Ruling Mizo National Front government of Chief Minister Zoramthanga is a strong player and it is likely to win power again as the BJP has become very unpopular in the backdrop of sordid development in Manipur for which the ruling party in Delhi is being held responsible.

In short, the move to use arm of big leaders may damage the saffron party as defeat in the three Hindi heartland states will send the top leadership looking for cover for the general elections next year.

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New Delhi, 04, October 2023

The move to use big leaders may damage the saffron party as defeat in the three Hindi heartland states will send the top leadership looking for cover in the general elections next year.

Dr Satish Misra