4

Nov

Chasing China’s Mega Dam, India Risks an Ecological Disaster

image

Shivaji Sarkar

New Delhi I Wednesday I November 04, 2026

The Himalayas are warning us that human intervention in this fragile mountain ecosystem can have catastrophic consequences. The massive rock-and-ice collapse near Langtang Lirung in August 2026, which triggered devastating floods downstream, is a stark reminder that a geological disaster thousands of metres above sea level can destroy lives and infrastructure far downstream. Yet India is contemplating an enormous intervention in the same vulnerable mountain system: the proposed 11,200 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) in Arunachal Pradesh. Presented as a strategic counter to China's mega-dam at Medog, the project raises a fundamental question: Can India protect itself from China's ecological gamble by undertaking one of its own?
Interestingly, SUMP was conceived by the Congress-led UPA government in 2008 and is now being pursued by the BJP, which had earlier criticised it.
The Langtang disaster was not a conventional glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). A huge mass of rock and glacier ice broke away from the mountain, triggering a destructive cascade of debris and water through the Lhende Khola, Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems. Temporary blockage of river channels and the subsequent release of accumulated water magnified the devastation. The lesson is clear: collapsing mountain slopes can themselves create temporary dams and unleash catastrophic floods.
The Himalayas constitute an interconnected and geologically unstable ecosystem. Large-scale interventions on either side of the mountain range can have consequences far beyond the project site. The ecological damage caused by the Soviet-era diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, which progressively shrank the Aral Sea and created the Aralkum desert, offers another warning against treating nature as an inexhaustible resource.
Medog Project and India's Response
China's proposed 60,000 MW hydropower project at Medog, near the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, has understandably alarmed India. The river enters Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang before becoming the Brahmaputra. Beijing's control over such a massive upstream project raises concerns about sudden water releases, withholding supplies during lean periods and the strategic leverage that control over river flows could provide.
India's proposed response is SUMP, with an installed capacity of 11,200 MW and approximately 9.2 billion cubic metres of proposed live storage. Its proponents argue that the reservoir could regulate sudden upstream releases, moderate floods and generate electricity.
But a larger reservoir is no automatic guarantee of safety. Its effectiveness would depend on available storage when a flood arrives, the volume of incoming water, advance warning and the ability to manage releases. A sudden mountain collapse accompanied by enormous quantities of water, rock and debris could overwhelm even substantial infrastructure. India cannot assume that its dam will neutralise every threat posed by China's project.
If China's intervention is considered dangerous because of the risks it creates downstream, India's own project must be subjected to equally rigorous scrutiny.
Geological Risks Cannot Be Ignored
The proposed project lies in the seismically active Eastern Himalayas, where the continuing collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates creates unstable geological conditions. Earthquakes, active faults, landslides and intense monsoon rainfall make the region particularly vulnerable to large infrastructure projects.
A reservoir containing 9.2 billion cubic metres of water would impose additional pressure on the surrounding terrain. Reservoir-induced seismicity, caused by changes in water pressure and stress along rock fractures, is a recognised phenomenon. Landslides or major slope failures into the reservoir could displace enormous volumes of water, generating destructive waves. Heavy sedimentation could also reduce storage capacity and undermine the project's flood-control function.
The October 2023 Teesta III disaster in Sikkim, when a glacial lake outburst flood overwhelmed hydropower infrastructure, remains a powerful warning. Expensive engineering cannot eliminate the forces of an unstable mountain environment.
 Adi Community Cannot Be Ignored
The strongest opposition to SUMP comes from the indigenous Adi community. For them, the Siang is not merely a river with hydropower potential; it is Ane Siang, Mother Siang, central to their cultural identity, ancestral memory, agriculture and everyday existence.
The proposed reservoir could submerge around 27 villages, while 32 or more settlements may face varying degrees of impact. The precise extent requires independent verification. But the consequences go far beyond the number of houses requiring relocation.
The Adi people's livelihoods depend on terraced agriculture, fishing, forests and community-managed resources. Sacred places, burial grounds, customary institutions and ancestral lands cannot simply be recreated at a resettlement site. Monetary compensation may replace property on paper, but it cannot restore a community's relationship with its river and territory. Displacement could fragment social networks, destroy traditional knowledge and weaken established community institutions.
Local organisations, including the Siang Indigenous Farmers Forum, have opposed surveys conducted without meaningful consent through traditional councils and village institutions. Police coercion cannot resolve these grievances. The violence at Pasighat on October 23 was regrettable, but the need of the hour is dialogue, transparency and respect for local concerns.
The experience of the Tehri Dam, which submerged the old town and displaced thousands, demonstrates that rehabilitation and livelihood concerns can remain unresolved long after construction.
An Enormous  Liability
The indicative cost of SUMP ranges between ₹1.13 lakh crore and ₹1.5 lakh crore. With associated infrastructure, rehabilitation, environmental mitigation and downstream protection, potential liabilities could push the figure towards ₹1.75–2 lakh crore. These are estimates, not approved project costs. Construction, sediment management, maintenance and disaster preparedness would impose further burdens.
The project therefore requires independent seismic-safety and cumulative environmental-impact assessments, transparent disclosure and genuine consultation with the Adi community. Their land rights, consent and rehabilitation concerns must be central to any decision.
China's strategic ambitions cannot become an excuse for India to imitate its approach to the Himalayas. India should instead build international pressure against ecologically dangerous interventions and pursue effective transboundary river cooperation.
National security is not measured merely in megawatts or reservoir capacity. It is measured by the ability to protect people, preserve rivers and prevent avoidable disasters. The Siang must not become another Himalayan blunder.

(Shivaji Sarkar is a senior journalist) 

 

  • Share:

About Us

We must explain to you how all seds this mistakens idea off denouncing pleasures and praising pain was born and I will give you a completed accounts..

Contact Us

Contact Info

  • 70, Gyan Khand- 4, Indirapuram, Ghaziabad. Uttar Pradesh.
  • +91-9910322682
  • mediamapnetwork@gmail.com
  • Week Days: 09.00 to 18.00 Sunday: Closed