21

Aug

The Fall from Invincibility: What Explains the Sudden Downslide of the Modi Government?

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Prof. Pradeep Mathur 

New Delhi, Friday 21 August 2026

Harold Wilson, the British Prime Minister in the 1960s, once said that a weel is a long time in poli-tics. The sudden loss of popular suppon for the BJP government and the declining clout of Prime Minister Narendra Modi show how correct the British stales-man was.

It is difficult to believe that the BJP, which scored a resounding victory in the Assembly elections less than 100 days ago, is now on the defensive, with its onco-boisterous leaders apparently shying away from facing the Opposition in Parliament and on public platforms.

All seemed to be going, well for Modi and the party. The HJP was confidently looking towards the next round of Assembly cloctions carly next year in Live states, including the all-important Uttar Pradesh. There was even talk that victory in these elections would pave the way for Modi's return to power in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Then, suddenly, the polit-ical atmosphere changed dramatically, and questions are now being raised about Modi's ability to continue in office until the end of the present term.

What happened so suddenly to bring about such a paradigm shift in the political scenario is certainly a matter of surprise. It is difficult to helieve that a two-month-old Cockroach Janata Party (CJP), an as semblage of students and unemployed youth with rol atively unknown leadership, could so severely shake the foundations of a government that has enjoyed an unchallenged position in the country for more than a decade.

What is not being, appreciated, however, is that the CJP and its leadership merely provided an outlet for siminering discontent to omerge in the form of a massive protest movement. There wore unmistakable signs of growing frustration among several sections of society over the arbitrary ways of the Modi govern-ment. The only problem was that this discontent had not found an effective means of expression.

It can be argued that, bocause of a myopie worldview and arroganco, the overconfident RJP Icadership ci-ther failed to soo this simmering discontent or dis missed it as being, of liule consequence. The result is the crisis in which the BJP now finds itself.

For political analysts, the big question is what has caused this sudden and catastrophic decline in the BJP's support? If things were deteriorating so rapially for the ruling establishinent, why wore there no visi-ble signs of such a steep downslids?

Many factors have contributed to the Modi govern ment's dwindling support. These include price rise, increasing unemployment, curbing of dissent and ag-grossivo campaigning by the Opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi. The cancellation of the NEET exammation in the wake of the question-paper leakage undoubtedly provided an immediate trigger. All these factors are important, but what has not received adequate auen tion is the role of mass communication.

Mass communication and the strategies implement ed through print, audio-visual and digital media play a crucial role in making or unmaking the image of a public leader. Modi and his much-discussed IT coll did a great deal to distort the image of the Nehru-Gandhi family in general and Rahul Gandhi in par-ticular. They largely succeeded in doing so. However, they apparently failed to understand some basic prin-ciples of mass communication, and this is now prov ing to be their undoing.

One simple rule of communication is that prolonged and relentless criticism can create sympathy for the person being criticised. People may gradually begin to view that person as a victim being unfairly targeted by the powerful. Similarly, excessive and sustained praiso can also produce a counter-offoct. Criticism and praise are hest absorbod when they are mossaurod It is no blasphemy to say that, unlike some other members of the chru-Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi initially failed to build a bridec with political workers and the masses because of his tone and tonor. That is why the BJP media machinery's description of him as "Pappu" initially gained currency. Combined with the apathy of the entrenched Congress leadership, popu-larly known as the Group of 23, Rahul Gandhi could not make much of a dent in the country's political landscape for quite some time.

However, the BJP's aggressive campaign to run han down and marginalise him, coupled with his re-silience, has gradually turned the tables on the BJP leadership. Had the BJP's modra and imago planners left Rahul Gandhi where he was after the Congress's humiliating, defeat in the 2014 elections, perhaps they would not now bo facing such a formidable challengo from him at the contre of power.

Similarly, Modi and his image-makers made an-other blunder by indulging in excessive self-praise and making boisterous claims about what they had achieved and what they proposed to accomplish. Now, when they are being questioned from all sides about the validity of these claims, they have difficulty providing convincing answers. The steep decline in Modi and his government's popular support should therefore surprise no one.

The massive agitation organised by the Cockroach Janata Party and its young, loaders has dentod Modi's image. The insensitive handling of the agitation and the repression of young boys and girls have made the situation even worse for the government.

The Prime Minister's Independence Day speech was apparently an attempt at damage control. But it is unlikely to help much. Their initial training in the neo-fascist RSS ideology appears to have made BJP leaders incapable of fully understanding the democrat-ic temperament. Modi's speech, apparently intended to pacify the agitated youth of the country, may prove counterproductive. The claims made by the Primo Minister are likely to faco critical serutiny and strong rehuttals, point by point. Such counter-attacks may damage the ruling establishment even further.

Perhaps a better strategy for the Modi government would have been to apologise for the aliceed polico crocsses at Jantar Mantar, invite the CJP leaders for talks, listen to their grievances and conecde some rea-sonable domands, such as withdrawal of cases against the students. But a power-drunk and arrogant political ecosystem has chosen the opposite course. criminal-ising young students and dismissing their genuine de-mands for a better education system.

Having invited confrontation, the ruling establishment must now remain prepared for it. The crucial question is whether the Prime Minister's Independence Day promises will prove to be the right weapons in its ur-moury or whether they will further expose the wid-ching gap between the government and the people.

(Author, a veteran journalist, currently edits Me-diamap news network, and chairs not-for-profit MRKM Foundation.)

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